With prices meandering up in the middle of the channel, there isn't much new to add to previous analysis. A break of either channel line will lead to a very profitable few months. Which way?
Well, that is the question, isn't it?
A
Thursday, March 26, 2009
In the muddle
With prices meandering up in the middle of the channel, there isn't much new to add to previous analysis. A break of either channel line will lead to a very profitable few months. Which way?
Well, that is the question, isn't it?
A
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
My charts and tools
Today's decline stopped right on an Up Channel line coming up from the March 6th lows. The rally that followed, into today's close, then triggered a fresh Blue Wave Buy Signal on the 240 minute (4 hour) chart below:
While prices are contained in this channel, expect the rally to continue. A fall from grace out of the channel would have very negative connotations.
Below is a picture of both the previous Down Channel and it's giving way to this new Up Channel at the beginning of March. Those printed prices on the chart are Blue Wave Buys and Sells.
Charts aren't for everyone, but for me, they are an essential map for all time frames. Tonight's 240 minute S&P chart, with EW, BW and the Up & Down Channels, is an excellent example of how these tools can all come together to point the trader in the right direction and maybe more importantly, provide an alert when prices act contrary to existing trends.
A
While prices are contained in this channel, expect the rally to continue. A fall from grace out of the channel would have very negative connotations.
Below is a picture of both the previous Down Channel and it's giving way to this new Up Channel at the beginning of March. Those printed prices on the chart are Blue Wave Buys and Sells.
Charts aren't for everyone, but for me, they are an essential map for all time frames. Tonight's 240 minute S&P chart, with EW, BW and the Up & Down Channels, is an excellent example of how these tools can all come together to point the trader in the right direction and maybe more importantly, provide an alert when prices act contrary to existing trends.
A
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
NNVC
Lots of angst about NanoViricides in my emails, comments, even phone calls from resourceful strangers.
This is my opinion:
Each 10,000 shares of NNVC will be worth $1M within five years.
This is a fact:
Those 10,000 shares cost $5,800.00 at current prices.
This is a Disclaimer:
You only live once.
This is me:
A
Each 10,000 shares of NNVC will be worth $1M within five years.
This is a fact:
Those 10,000 shares cost $5,800.00 at current prices.
This is a Disclaimer:
You only live once.
This is me:
A
Monday, March 23, 2009
To the point
Some personal matters necessitate an abbreviated post tonight. In fact the daily postings are in jeopardy for various and sundry reasons, including but not limited to taxes. So quickly, here is how I see things.
Above is today's BW Trend 30 minute chart. That first long blue bar was pre-market, but there was immediate follow through so the system was long all day, into the close.
Above is the Weekly EW chart. Note that today's bar has broken out of the long term regression channel coming down from the Wave 2 Top, about one year ago. If this week's bar stays above the channel, a compelling case for that larger "Primary Wave 2" rally.
GFRE
Recommended last December at 22c a share. Closed today at 52c. This is the one that some wise guy claimed I was pumping and dumping. That's over 100% in about three months. Might have to re-define pump and dump, eh?
A
Above is today's BW Trend 30 minute chart. That first long blue bar was pre-market, but there was immediate follow through so the system was long all day, into the close.
Above is the Weekly EW chart. Note that today's bar has broken out of the long term regression channel coming down from the Wave 2 Top, about one year ago. If this week's bar stays above the channel, a compelling case for that larger "Primary Wave 2" rally.
GFRE
Recommended last December at 22c a share. Closed today at 52c. This is the one that some wise guy claimed I was pumping and dumping. That's over 100% in about three months. Might have to re-define pump and dump, eh?
A
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Perspective
At the suggestion of a reader, Jack, let's take a step or two back and look at the bigger picture in hope of gaining some perspective on market direction.
First a big picture snapshot going all the way back to the mid-1990's which is about when the roller coaster started picking up speed and the adventure began:
Your first impression? Right, "Double Top". Prechter calls the this pattern as a Wave 5 Top in 2000, followed by an A wave down into 2002 and then a B wave up into 2007. That's leaves us in a C wave down and Prechter's targets are much, much lower then the 1990's lows at the far left of the chart.
This C wave should take the form of Five Waves Down from the B top in 2007. Here is my chart on that five wave progression, it's the Weekly SPX chart with linear regression channels drawn on the entire move down from late 2007:
The issue we will be wrestling with over the next few weeks or months is whether or not Wave 3 down is complete (A completed five waves down from Wave 2 high) or if there is still another low coming to complete that cycle.
For the past six months, it was pretty clear that Wave 3 was unfolding on this Weekly chart, ergo my steadfast bearishness. That clarity has recently become muddled in the potential that the entire Third Wave may be complete. The implications of that possibility can be seen on the above chart as the projected targets for Wave 4, 850-1000 on the SPX.
A few weeks ago Prechter went from Short to Cash in the expectation that this massive decline would soon take a respite, one that would last for months and several hundred SPX points higher and one that he felt most comfortable sitting out. His short netted him 800 S&P points. Being conservative and possibly leaving some on the table was more of a strategic decision, not so much a market timing forecast.
Those of us that do not sell advice but must trade in the trenches every day have another decision to make. Trade on the Long or Short side of this market? Ever since this post on September 10, 2008, that question has been easily answered on the Short side of the market. What has changed isn't so much the direction of the market, but the clarity on that direction.
For that, I have been posting shorter-term charts, utilizing proprietary analysis tools, some store-bought, some internally developed and all taking some element of subjectivity into consideration for day to day and even hour to hour trading.
But as Jack suggested, keeping an eye on the big picture, from where we have come to find ourselves at this time and at this place in the overall price patterns measured in years and not minutes, gives a perspective that can only be gleaned by stepping back, taking a breath and having that, "ah-ha" moment.
Back to the shorter-term, next time.
A
Another Big Picture ah-ha moment:
First a big picture snapshot going all the way back to the mid-1990's which is about when the roller coaster started picking up speed and the adventure began:
Your first impression? Right, "Double Top". Prechter calls the this pattern as a Wave 5 Top in 2000, followed by an A wave down into 2002 and then a B wave up into 2007. That's leaves us in a C wave down and Prechter's targets are much, much lower then the 1990's lows at the far left of the chart.
This C wave should take the form of Five Waves Down from the B top in 2007. Here is my chart on that five wave progression, it's the Weekly SPX chart with linear regression channels drawn on the entire move down from late 2007:
The issue we will be wrestling with over the next few weeks or months is whether or not Wave 3 down is complete (A completed five waves down from Wave 2 high) or if there is still another low coming to complete that cycle.
For the past six months, it was pretty clear that Wave 3 was unfolding on this Weekly chart, ergo my steadfast bearishness. That clarity has recently become muddled in the potential that the entire Third Wave may be complete. The implications of that possibility can be seen on the above chart as the projected targets for Wave 4, 850-1000 on the SPX.
A few weeks ago Prechter went from Short to Cash in the expectation that this massive decline would soon take a respite, one that would last for months and several hundred SPX points higher and one that he felt most comfortable sitting out. His short netted him 800 S&P points. Being conservative and possibly leaving some on the table was more of a strategic decision, not so much a market timing forecast.
Those of us that do not sell advice but must trade in the trenches every day have another decision to make. Trade on the Long or Short side of this market? Ever since this post on September 10, 2008, that question has been easily answered on the Short side of the market. What has changed isn't so much the direction of the market, but the clarity on that direction.
For that, I have been posting shorter-term charts, utilizing proprietary analysis tools, some store-bought, some internally developed and all taking some element of subjectivity into consideration for day to day and even hour to hour trading.
But as Jack suggested, keeping an eye on the big picture, from where we have come to find ourselves at this time and at this place in the overall price patterns measured in years and not minutes, gives a perspective that can only be gleaned by stepping back, taking a breath and having that, "ah-ha" moment.
Back to the shorter-term, next time.
A
Another Big Picture ah-ha moment:
Friday, March 20, 2009
Friday part III
A continuation of the previous two posts, exemplifying of how all of this came together, the charts, channels, wave counts, Blue Wave and now FBS Trend appearing on the 15 minute charts.
A
Friday intraday part II
Note how prices touched the upper channel and turned down:
The Blue Wave trend chart has stayed bearish; note how the CCI indicator has stayed under the zero line for almost the entire decline:
A
The Blue Wave trend chart has stayed bearish; note how the CCI indicator has stayed under the zero line for almost the entire decline:
A
Friday intra-day chart update
15 minute charts
EW (right chart) = Moving sideways toward top of DOWN CHANNEL;
BW (left chart) = Still in down trend, but any decent strength could flip it blue (UP).
A
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Tale of two rallies
Gold
Follow-through = still bullish
Stocks
Wednesday -->Strong rally everyone's bullish;
Thursday ---> not so fast, no follow-through
Channels: Wednesday Up; Thursday Down
Five minute chart Thursday
Muddled to bearish for Friday
Which Channel will prices choose?
A
Follow-through = still bullishStocks
Wednesday -->Strong rally everyone's bullish; Thursday ---> not so fast, no follow-through
Channels: Wednesday Up; Thursday Down
Five minute chart ThursdayMuddled to bearish for Friday
Which Channel will prices choose?
A
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Gold Buy
Wave 4 Buy Signal, confirmed with False Bar Stochastic. Stop just below previous low.
Those are some very long bars that came in Wednesday after the Fed announcement. I will be very surprised if these bullish bars don't prove to be harbingers of some big moves and not just limited to the Gold markets.
A
Those are some very long bars that came in Wednesday after the Fed announcement. I will be very surprised if these bullish bars don't prove to be harbingers of some big moves and not just limited to the Gold markets.
A
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