tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post3498759614130549469..comments2023-10-20T05:43:46.254-07:00Comments on All Allan: QID & Triangle TimingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-86722769321804952822008-09-14T12:00:00.000-07:002008-09-14T12:00:00.000-07:00Wayne, this type of break out signal is working in...Wayne, this type of break out signal is working in this market, that's one of the reasons i put a lot more emphasis on recent signals then all signals. I know the orthodox view is that a mechanical system should work in all markets, but if you haven't noticed, I am anything but orthodox. And I still maintain that a money management filter where you cut losses and let profits win makes a huge difference in this and any other system. FInally, as long as you are testing the triangles, note how often triangles are 5-10% in the money before losing it. In other words, if one were to use the triangles to scalp between 5-10% per trade, you might have a higher percentage winning trades (although total profits may or may not be better).Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-38846511026778656952008-09-14T11:52:00.000-07:002008-09-14T11:52:00.000-07:00Hey Allan,Would you mind alerting your blog reader...Hey Allan,<BR/><BR/>Would you mind alerting your blog readers once you post your piece on Market Club? Thanks!<BR/><BR/>Also fyi it turns out the triangle triggers were pretty easy to figure out after a little noodling (basically they're 3-period lows/highs that reverse a trend).<BR/><BR/>I've been playing with Excel macros over the last few months in order to mine data from the web. I had previously downloaded historical OHLC data for a lot of symbols, including 49 ETF's, with histories going back either as long as they've been around or 55 weeks, whichever is greatest. <BR/><BR/>I created a macro to back-test trading the triangle for these 49 ETF's over the weekly OHLC ranges collected. These were mostly double-long or double-short ETF's (list available upon request). What I found was that:<BR/><BR/>* 35 of them would have lost you money if only this timing signal were used (ranging from -4% to -85% loss).<BR/><BR/>* 14 of them would have netted a gain (ranging from 3% to 163%). 12 of them were 57% or less (the two standouts were EWV and EEV, with 154% and 164% respectively).<BR/><BR/>So almost 30% of these stocks would have lost money. One of the 14 winners was QID, which according to my calculations would have netted 11.3% gain over the 55-week period. At some point I plan on incorporating a lot more symbols as well as more history.<BR/><BR/>Anyways, I think these findings underscore the necessity of filtering this triangle trading through multiple indicators and/or confirmations, so I'll definitely be looking for your related posting on the MarketClub on this.<BR/><BR/>thanks,<BR/>WayneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-80632657217710681662008-09-12T08:51:00.000-07:002008-09-12T08:51:00.000-07:00Thanks Allan! I'll be looking for your guest writ...Thanks Allan! I'll be looking for your guest write-up.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>WayneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-78917280967649531442008-09-12T06:54:00.000-07:002008-09-12T06:54:00.000-07:00Wayne, I'll be writing a guest Blog for Market Cl...Wayne, I'll be writing a guest Blog for Market Club in a few weeks and you just gave me an idea for it, how to use the signals in real time real money trading. To your question, I have found that the system signals work on about 2/3 of the stocks, ETF's, Futures, that I am testing. The Weekly signals have the highest percentage winners, the Daily signals are not bad, but usually not any better then the Weeklies. If you are looking for a filter, MACD works as well as any i.e. taking only those signals being confirmed by an MACD cross-over that is at an overbought/ovetsold extreme. Cuts down number of signals dramatically, but won/loss record is well over 80%.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-29291900626886520402008-09-12T05:17:00.000-07:002008-09-12T05:17:00.000-07:00Hey Allan,I've spot-checked a few of the ETF's, bo...Hey Allan,<BR/><BR/>I've spot-checked a few of the ETF's, both long and short. I gotta say, most of the ones I've looked at would have lost me money if I'd just followed the weekly triangle buy/sell signals. It is apparent that, to be successful using this approach you must use some other criteria to identify what is or is not a triangle-friendly stock.<BR/><BR/>What criteria do you use to separate the wheat from the chaff? I haven't found any training yet that directly addresses that question. The Market Club site has plenty of training links, but I'll never find time to absorb it all.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>WayneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-34744014878455841272008-09-10T20:38:00.000-07:002008-09-10T20:38:00.000-07:00Ron, works great with AAPL, not as good with GOOG...Ron, works great with AAPL, not as good with GOOG, still better then B&H though, excellent on ETF's.<BR/><BR/>Wayne, once you understand how it works you can come up with a better mousetrap on how to apply the system, as I did and as you can once you get the hang of it.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-69158131719583176392008-09-10T20:33:00.000-07:002008-09-10T20:33:00.000-07:00Hi Allan,I went ahead and signed up to try out the...Hi Allan,<BR/><BR/>I went ahead and signed up to try out the triangles. They recommend a somewhat different approach than your example, but with much worse results than yours in the QID case :)<BR/><BR/>What they recommend is only enter into weekly trades when they match the monthly trend, and exit on mismatch. So assuming we make the initial entry of 2008 based on a monthly signal, we'd get:<BR/><BR/>01/07: buy 43.04<BR/>03/24: sell 50.87<BR/>05/01: short 40.80<BR/>06/11: cover 40.93<BR/>07/31: short 43.23<BR/>09/02: cover 42.62<BR/><BR/>Total Net: 8.31<BR/><BR/>So roughly 20% gain. Certainly beats the major indices during the same period, but clearly inferior to just playing both sides regardless of the monthly trend, like you did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-45685290039648188392008-09-10T13:14:00.000-07:002008-09-10T13:14:00.000-07:00Allan,how would the triangles fare on a high beta,...Allan,how would the triangles fare on a high beta,large cap stock like GOOG?<BR/> Thanks,RonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com