All Allan

On waking

2012-01-26T21:40:00.002-07:00

It's spooky quiet, dark and cold at 4:30 in the morning. Now awake, there is nothing to do but think. Too early to get out from under the warm covers and too late to go back to sleep. Whatever dreams that were playing out are now forgotten and its clear I am back from those travels. Of all the fresh thoughts rushing by, one stands out: I have made it to another day of life.

There will come a morning when new days like this will not come. There will be no more. So while there is still time and life ahead, maybe its best to look at what still awaits. It may or may not end with a rainbow, but no matter what, it will end without regrets. That is my promise to myself.

Old man look at my life,
Twenty four
And there's so much more
Live alone in a paradise
That makes me think of two.

Love lost, such a cost,
Give me things
That don't get lost.
Like a coin that won't get tossed
Rolling home to you.

Late September, 2002. I'm sitting on a wooden stairway that leads down to the beach at Kiawah. Off to the south, I can see the dimming edge of the sunset reflected off of the water. I don't remember why I was there or what thoughts were swirling around inside, but I do remember the sound of the surf against the sand and the smell of the ocean carried by the wind. A block away, my two young daughters sit doing homework, or by now, watching TV and a small white dog named Clare waits patiently, eagerly, lovingly, for my return. At that place and time, I didn't know this flawless moment would come back a decade later on a cold January morning in the desert. I didn't know the speed of life. I didn't understand timeless perfection.

There is a certain beauty to life, a magical journey through time. We share those moments with loved ones and each one of us looks back in longing affection at those simpler times. It's now 5:00am and the first light of a new day is streaming across the sky. Laying here alone, I love you.

Old man take a look at my life
I'm a lot like you
I need someone to love me
The whole day through
Ah, one look in my eyes
And you can tell that's true.

Old man look at my life,
I'm a lot like you were.
Old man look at my life,
I'm a lot like you were.

A rare sports blog

2012-01-23T17:01:00.001-07:00

I didn't watch the game between the Ravens and the Patriots. It was the consolation game, the contest for the expansion league's "championship." But I did watch the real NFL championship game, the 49ers vs. the Giants. The game they call the Super Bowl is just a bunch of clever commercials, interspersed with a game between the AFC and NFL.

Note, I said "NFL" as there is and has always been just one professional football league. Buffalo. Cincinnati. Jacksonville. Who are they kidding? So this is what we got Sunday: San Francisco went deep into the 4th quarter without a converting a single 3rd down. The Giants made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, meaning in the regular season,they lost almost as many games as they won. In a virtual tie game for all of the 4th quarter and into overtime, neither offense could score. Only a fumble, make that two fumbles, on punt returns allowed the winning team to barely win the game.

Oh, the worst of it is now we have two weeks of New York and Boston coverage by the sports media. By the day of the contest, a game between an expansion league team and a mediocre 9-7 team will be heralded as the game of the century. Its all about selling commercial time and media hype. Its not football, its cheesy business. Hey, who was the college national champion? Had to think about it, didn't you?

That's enough bellyaching for me. The Wings and Blues are on in a few minutes. The St. Louis Blues, another expansion team. Will it never end?

The Best Stock Advice In The World

2012-01-18T15:24:00.000-07:00

At the beginning of the high tech bubble in 1997 you could have bought Apple Computer at $5.00 a share. It went to $37 at the high-tech peak in early 2000 then dropped back to $10 at the 2002 market bottom. By 2008 it was over $200. At the market lows of early 2009, back under $100. Three years later, as I write these words, Apple Computer is trading at $420 a share. Let's throw out the riff-raff, in 15 years AAPL went from $5 to $420.

I bring this to your attention to illustrate just how much wealth is available for the taking in the stock market. Real estate? You bought a house for $100K in 1985 and sold it for $500K in 2000. That's a 400% return in 15 years. Donald Trump is calling. When Apple rose from $5 to just $25 you had that same 400% return. Sorry, Donald, I can't come to the phone right now.

Knowing that there are opportunities to make money, big money, in stocks is a starting point. Few people understand the very basic tenant of investing. The illustration above of Apple is an outlier, an extreme example of good investment fortune. Or is it?

You can look at Apple as one huge 15 year long-trend. But, AAPL got cut in half in 2008-2009. Who has the grit to stay with a stock that has a 50% haircut in the midst of a scary bear market? Or asked another way, who can forecast the future direction of Apple or for that matter, any stock price?

Take another look at the chart above and note that there are red and blue bars. The red bars are when my trend algorithm said to get out of AAPL, it was going down. The blue bars represent those times when my trend algorithm said to hold AAPL LONG, it was in an uptrend. The algorithm wasn't perfect. It was late a bar or two every time the trend changed. But it did catch 95% of the movement of the stock, both up and down.

The best stock advice in the world is to buy stocks that go up and sell stocks that go down. It used to be a Will Rogers joke:

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."

Rogers had the right idea, Harris has the right algorithm. Buy stocks that go up and sell stocks that go down. Listen to the math, its the best stock advice in the world.

Somewhere Over The Rainbow

2011-12-24T10:18:00.000-07:00

Israel Ka'ano'i Kamakawiwo'ole was born at Kuakini Hospital in Honolulu The son of Evangeline Leinani Kamakawiwo'ole (aka Keale) and Henry Kalei'aloha Naniwa (aka Tiny). He lived the first 10 years of his life in Palolo Valley on O'ahu. Then the family moved to Makaha.Young Israel was surrounded by music, his uncle was Moe Keale, a well-known musician, and his parents worked at a Waikiki bar where many of the legends of Hawaiian music performed.

At age six, Israel learned to play the ukelele after watching and listening to his mother, his older brother, and his uncle. His first performed publicly at around age eleven when he and Skippy, his older brother, were called up to the stage by bands that played regularly for tourists at their parents' workplace.

On 1990 Israel Kamakawiwo'ole decided to start recording on his own. His first record,Ka 'Ano'i, became the most popular Hawaiian album of 1990, His second solo album, Facing Future, was released in 1993, and in 1995 the album E Ala E featured a duet with Skippy (using special studio effects). His next album N Dis Life(1996) continued to sell very well.

Throughout his last years, Iz suffered from severe obesity, at one point carried 769 pounds (350 kg). Israel died of weight-related respiratory illness on June 26th, 1997. Over 10,000 people attended his funeral on July 10th 1997, The wooden coffin lay at the Capitol building in Honolulu. He was the third person in Hawaiian history to be accorded this honor (the other two were Senator Spark Matsunaga and Governor John A. Burns). His ashes were scattered into the Pacific Ocean at M'kua Beach on July 12, 1997.

Somewhere over the rainbow
Way up high,
There's a land that I heard of
Once in a lullaby.

Somewhere over the rainbow
Skies are blue,
And the dreams that you dare to dream
Really do come true.

Someday I'll wish upon a star
And wake up where the clouds are far
Behind me.
Where troubles melt like lemon drops
Away above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me.

Somewhere over the rainbow
Bluebirds fly.
Birds fly over the rainbow.
Why then, oh why can't I?

If happy little bluebirds fly
Beyond the rainbow
Why, oh why can't I?

Laura Marling

2011-12-18T08:27:00.000-07:00

I did not intend to write another piece so soon after putting up Song for the Holidays. But then I heard Laura Marling. She is a 21 year-old singer-songwriter from Hampshire, England. The music I post at AllAllan is filled with intense, deeply personal songs. Until I heard Laura Marling I thought they didn't write songs like that anymore. I was wrong.

Song for the Holidays

2011-12-16T17:28:00.003-07:00

And now the holiday season is upon us. In my family's home on Roselawn in Detroit, it was sometime in the 50's and everyone was still alive. We lighted a candle for each of the eight nights of Chanukah. I was a seven-year-old boy whose only dreams were of a Davy Crocket toy rifle or a new bike. The real dreams, the ones that weren't about things, were still to come. One night it was gelt. Silver and gold wrapped chocolate that we devoured as our parents, aunts, uncles and grandparents looked on, proud of the job they had done making the children happy. Learned by their example, inherited from their genes, over the years and through the loss of them all, one by one, we that are left are left still making our children happy, making ourselves proud.

In 1966 I was in High School and we got two weeks off for the holidays. I sat in my room listening to folk music on the local public radio station or playing the music of a strange-named duo, eloquent, piercing, inspiring and personal. Simon and Garfunkel had just released Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme. I embraced the poetry and feelings that I thought only I had known. Who were these guys?

In the 1990's the holidays were spent on the beach in South Carolina. Even with the summer people coming back to the island with their families, the beach was still nearly empty. We rode our bikes and drove into town to see the lights at James Island Park. My kids were given Chanukah just the way I had learned it and my little one was in charge of counting the nights, making sure a gift and new candle were part of each of the eight nights. My mother would have been proud. She passed way too soon, but she would have been proud.

How things have changed. I am so far away from those times, those aunts and uncles and parents and cousins and grandparents. I am so far from my kids, in geography and time and regrets. The holiday now is filled not with celebration, or faith, but sports on TV. We no longer have a single home. We have our own homes, with each one of the four of us caught up in the holidays of others, relying instead on phone calls and text messages.

The holidays have changed too. now they are about colored days that refer to special sales of the things that people buy. The ads are draped over our lives, filled with cars in bows and expensive jewelry that generate guilt and insufficiency. How can you love her if you don't buy her this and that? How can I love her? How can I love her? How can I love her?

Someone I didn't know died today. I read about it on The Drudge Report. He was born in 1949, the same year as me. He never made it to this year's holidays, this year's gifts, this year's guilt and this year's sports on TV.

Silence like a cancer grows.

A

Guest Editorial - Gerald Celente on MF Global

2011-12-09T10:54:00.000-07:00

NNVC - maturity knocking

2011-12-05T06:54:00.001-07:00

In 2009 I forecast that NNVC could be a triple digit stock (over $100/share) by 2014. That forecast was based on their game-changing anti-viral technology that has the potential to eradicate the most heinous viral diseases known to civilization. No hyperbole, just facts.

It takes time and money to go from here ($0.70/share currently) to there. They have the money now and we have the time.

NanoViricides, Inc. Announces That It Has Submitted a Pre-IND Meeting Request to the US FDA For Its Anti-Influenza Clinical Drug Candidate, FluCide™
Submission Represents a Major Advance for the Company

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC) (the “Company”) announced today that it has submitted a pre-IND Meeting Request to the US FDA. The Company has requested an initial meeting with the US FDA to review the Company’s proposed strategy and plan for conducting safety/toxicology studies and human clinical trials required for approval of its anti-influenza clinical drug candidate, FluCide™ (i.e. NV-INF-1).

“This submission is a major milestone in the Company’s program to obtain US FDA approval for FluCide™,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO, adding, “FluCide has demonstrated excellent efficacy and safety when treating influenza infections in our animal studies. We anticipate similar strong results in humans when the drug becomes available for human use.”

The Company has submitted required introductory documentation with the meeting request letter in consultation with the Company’s regulatory matters consultants, viz. the Biologics Consulting Group. The Company plans to submit additional briefing documents at least thirty days before the FDA meeting, in compliance with the FDA guidelines.

This pre-IND meeting request submission follows the Company’s recent announcement that it has chosen a clinical candidate, NV-INF-1, in its anti-influenza drug program (FluCide™) to develop for regulatory submissions both domestically and internationally. It is estimated that there are about 50 million cases of influenza annually in the USA alone, and about 250,000 patients are hospitalized for influenza. The Company believes that a single course of therapy that can be easily administered by a medical office is likely to be feasible for out-patients, with no additional follow-on treatment necessary. This expectation is based on the following results from its animal studies: (1) the extremely high treatment effectiveness in inhibiting the cycle of infection, virus expansion and spread of infection and, (2) the significantly long lasting effects of the drug treatment after the drug is discontinued. In addition to out-patients, the Company also plans to develop an indication for hospitalized severe cases of influenza.

The Company has recently announced that it is working on developing cGMP (“current Good Manufacturing Practices”) manufacturing capability for the production of its drug candidates. cGMP manufactured materials will be required when the Company is ready to file an Investigational New Drug (IND) application to the US FDA.

JFK

2011-11-20T17:33:00.001-07:00

JFK
May 29, 1917 - Nov 22, 1963
RIP

Hampton Junior High School
Detroit, Michigan
Ninth Grade English
Last class of the day
Principal walked somberly into room
Whispered to teacher
Turns to class
The President is dead.
School dismissed
Go home.

Four friends walking home
Stunned silence
Frozen in time
Filled with fear
and apprehension

Vietnam War
3,000,000 Vietnamese, dead
52,000 friends walking home, dead

Number one song, 11_22_63
Dale & Grace: "I'm leaving it up to you."

Memories of Life

2011-11-18T16:00:00.000-07:00

The world would be a better place without leaf blowers. There used to be rakes. They were used to silently sweep leaves into small piles which could be picked up and placed in trash bags. When I was a kid growing up in Detroit, my father, bother and I would get out there on Thanksgiving morning and the three of us would rake up a big pile of leaves and place it just off of the curb at the end of the driveway. In the years before they made burning leaves illegal, my Dad would light a fire and burn the pile off into the crisp autumn air. I can still smell the smoldering mound. Then we would all go inside and watch the Lions game.

Memories of life. Popping up here on my blog from time to time, so that some day my daughters will have a piece of their father to remember and maybe show to their children, who maybe will ask about a photograph on a table or discovered in an old album.

There are some things that are felt but never said. Some questions that get asked, for which are no answers.

Why didn't this one work?

"Your head just inches from my own, your toes cradled beneath mine. Your breathing slow and measured. You lay beside me, safe, content and deeply asleep. Ever so gently your hand slips into mine. Loosely, then tight, then loose again. You are drifting, immersed in some far away dream. Quiet lovers, in soft cadence, intertwined. I could have stayed forever."

These moments I write about; No finer gifts could ever touch my life.

But stories always end,
And if you read between the lines,
You'd know that I'm just tryin' to understand
The feelin's that you lack.
I never thought I could feel this way
And I've got to say that I just don't get it.
I don't know where we went wrong,
But the feelin's gone
And I just can't get it back

Camelback

2011-11-11T14:38:00.001-07:00

Friday's have been slow, especially toward the end of the market session. So today I packed up an hour early and climbed up Camelback Mountain. Well, not all the way up. You get to know when your body says, "I'm too young to die," and its time to turn back down.

At a spectacular view of the desert below, I think about the last night we slept together. It has become one of those moments to remember as it is too revealing, too eloquent, to let go. I wrote about one in a previous post:

The closest we ever were as a couple were those special moments on the dance floor, sometimes just locked in a deep passionate kiss....

We were far into our Sunday night, our TV night. The shows and movies were over, the television was off and we were under the covers. I was mostly asleep. She was mostly awake. Out of a quickly forgotten dream, I felt her fingers on my back, up and down, back and forth, slow and methodical. I wondered at first if she was trying to wake me for a quiet, fleeting moment of intimacy. No, her touch was too gentle, too soft, too personal. She loves me, she loves me not. She loves me, she loves me not. She loves me, she loves me not.

I knew that if I awoke, she would retreat, feeling smothered and seek distance. So I didn't stir. I did not want her light, sweet touch to stop, to disappear. Another man might awake and turn toward her. But another man would not be beside her, not this night.

I continue down Camelback, having not reached the peak, full of the memory, the magic, the melody of her touch. She loves me. She loves me not.

Cactus Tree

2011-11-04T14:56:00.000-07:00

There's a man who's been out sailing
In a decade full of dreams
And he takes her to a schooner
And he treats her like a queen

Is love just the release of chemicals in the brain to aid in the procreation of the species? Do you know anyone over 50 who is in love?

A girl pours a shot of expresso into my coffee at Starbucks. It's 6:00am and I am not at my best. I think and feel, yes, I can fall in love with her. But all that comes out is a "Thank you," and a one dollar tip. Out of some distant memory I hear Joni Mitchell.

I sent M a text message about our times together. It was too early to call her and by writing it down I wouldn't catch her by surprise. Maybe what comes back is thought out, felt out, honesty.

There's a man who's sent a letter
And he's waiting for reply
He has asked her of her travels
Since the day they said goodbye
He writes "Wish you were beside me
We can make it if we try"

Thirty years ago, by now I would be holding hands with the girl from Starbucks. Small talk chit-chat would have led to the abandonment of our customer-barista roles and lead to the magical creation of chemicals, hope and budding feelings The dance of love. But now the days turn colder, light becomes dimmer, we don't think about love, we think about the end of days. Love never is lost, it just disappears.

There's a man who's climbed a mountain
And he's calling out her name
And he hopes her heart can hear
Three thousand miles he calls again
He can think her there beside him
He can miss her just the same

Then one day we find ourselves in that one last great love of our lives. We won't know when its over until its gone. I can count them all on one hand, the real ones, the great ones, the magical, romantic, intense ones, before they disappeared.

But not this one. I'm not ready to let her go.

She will love them when she sees them
They will lose her if they follow
And she only means to please them
And her heart is full and hollow
Like a cactus tree
While she's so busy being free

Down the foggy ruins of time

2011-10-22T15:23:00.001-07:00

Hockey season is back again and once more we have the pleasure of watching Pavel Datsyuk and the Detroit Red Wings. When I was in high school in Detroit, we didn't have a hockey team. But a group of us hockey fanatics would rent out an hour of ice time at the Detroit Skating Club, from 11:00pm to 12:00pm on Saturday nights. It was a badge of honor to be one of the 22 selected to play each Saturday night.

It was also date night. That too was a badge of honor, to bring your date to the arena to watch you play. Yes, those were some strange times. I worked myself up to be a regular of the 22 by skating circles for 2 hours every day after school at the State Fairgrounds arena. One of the other skaters each day was a girl named Sheila Young. She ended up winning a Gold Medal in the 1972 Olympics.

Now some forty years later, I don't skate anymore, I don't play hockey anymore, Saturday night is no longer date night for me, whether in a relationship or not. No, let me take that back. M and I used to go dancing at a club here in Phoenix on Saturday nights. The closest we ever were as a couple were those special moments on the dance floor, sometimes just locked in a deep passionate kiss, with all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves. No hockey game ever compared to those kisses, those dances, those date nights.

All of that is gone now. The skating, the hockey, the date nights, M. It seems that nothing ever stays the same. It changes for the better, it changes for the worse, it changes just for the sake of change. But one thing never changed in all of that. Every time there was the future. Every one of those skates, games, dances, passionate kisses was full of hope and giddy expectation of what would be coming next.

And what came next?

Writing about what was once and forever, my life.

Then take me disappearin' through the smoke rings of my mind
Down the foggy ruins of time, far past the frozen leaves
The haunted, frightened trees, out to the windy beach
Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow
Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free
Silhouetted by the sea, circled by the circus sands
With all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves
Let me forget about today until tomorrow.

The Moon is a harsh mistress...

2011-10-18T21:37:00.000-07:00

....she's hard to call your own.

On Steve Jobs

2011-10-13T09:16:00.000-07:00

On the day Steve jobs died, I posted a note to my subscribers regarding the technical analysis of AAPL. One of my subscribers, a very bright and supportive subscriber who has been with me a very long time wrote me an, "how dare you" message, accusing me of an insensitivity that I cannot deny. As an Apple customer, shareholder and advocate since 1987, I could have instead written a sad post of his passing. My bad.

Death follows us with its icy stare and constant patience throughout our lives. For Jobs, death was a part of his life in the later years. No wealth, nor personal accomplishments could possibly compensate for those years he endured, waiting for the end. We all waited with him, knowing there was nothing short of a medical miracle that could stave off the inevitable. His strength and courage right up to the end was an inspiration for all of us who felt we knew him and worked with him every day we opened our MacBooks, or answered our iPhones. I loved that man. Not because I knew him, but because he knew me.

As each of us move toward the inevitable, we have the choice to exert the strength and courage to live our lives with the passion that was Steve Jobs. I have made some extreme decisions along the path that winds through my days. I have hurt myself and those that love me as I always chose the trail least traveled. Along that way, I have touched the beauty and felt the pain that fell upon the life I have chosen to live. Yet nothing I have done can ever be compared with the accomplishments of a man who traveled with death every day of his latter years. We live with his legacy every day, with every key stroke, every ringtone, every iPad.

Steve Jobs is an eternal inspiration and his passing left the world a lessor place, as his life made the world a better place.

Another Sunday Night

2011-10-09T17:04:00.000-07:00

These thoughts and feelings were first published here a couple of years ago. I ran across them again tonight. Who was this man so full of hope, expectation and faith? What does he feel, what does think, who does he dream of in the dark corner of another Sunday night?

I am not sure what needs to be said here. The words and melody, a soft and raspy voice, melodious, tranquil; the synthesis of age and beauty creating a portrait of the artist as an old man.

A mirrored testament of a life serene, if only for this passing moment.

Sunday is my personal day, a time for reflection and rest, a day to share some personal joy, or angst as these later years seem to prefer.

Something unwritten, unsaid, seeks release with the harmonies, the words, the music and the sentiment his art.

In the end, subtly and unfinished, it leaves an image of our lives, expressed in a song, delicate, vibrant, eloquent.

It remains one of my favorites, a Best-of-Allan, for all that it says about love and life, for all that is says about you and me.

Find someone to love, then love her.

Sunrise

2011-09-23T04:54:00.001-07:00

It is early and the air is filled with the mist of a low country dawn. Before me is a serene salt water marsh, murmuring with life, undisturbed by the thunder of the ocean roaring just beyond the breeze. How I have come to be in this place after all of these years is the story of my life. It will be remembered in bits and pieces by all who have crossed my path and by the ones who were told about me because those paths did matter.

The end lays beyond, in a quiet mystery, out of view, on my mind. It is a place like this, of swirling beaches, of egrets and of trees that never die. One day I shall awake and I will be home.

Sundown

2011-09-09T19:54:00.001-07:00

It's last night already. Gets dark fast in the middle of September. A few days ago, it was July and we celebrated my birthday by not fighting. There was no August this year, called off, too hot. I am tired of the desert, or maybe it's tired of me. The streets are filled with a different generation, not the one behind me, but the one behind them. I watch baseball like my grandfather did and I don't smoke dope anymore.

Every day passes quickly, uneventfully, smaller then the day before. I talk more on the phone then face to face. There is no one to touch anymore. I know this was not how it was meant to be. In this part I was supposed to be smiling, that was always the plan. I should be at the ballgame, not watching it. I should be across the table, not eating alone. I should be living, not writing.

I awoke to a lightening storm. Thunder rolling in the sky, rain waiting its turn. She was there, left over from a dream, in the new blue dress we bought last week. Below is one of her favorite songs by one of my favorite artists. It was so rare that we liked the same music, this one and Tangled Up in Blue pretty much covered it. Storms like this are meant to be shared, but last night I was alone, as it was meant it to be.

Sundown you better take care

If I find you been creeping 'round my back stairs

Sometimes I think it's a sin

When I feel like I'm winning when I'm losing again

Inspiration

2011-09-08T19:37:00.001-07:00

Trading is not an easy game. If it was, everyone would be doing it. It takes persistence, discipline and not being intimidated; not by a bad day, bad trade or bad break. Most of all, it takes being ready at any moment step up against all odds and show the market you have the heart to take it down.

Reason to Believe

2011-09-07T16:09:00.001-07:00

I can tell from the statcounter that not a lot of folks are hitting these very personal reflections of my life. That's ok with me, I'm writing these mostly for myself so that one day I can look back and remember. I would be surprised if any my past loves stop by and read these. Even if they did, they would never be sure if it was written about them, or someone else I have been with along the way. The common thread through it all is my search for love and how lost I have become. There certainly have been enough, one lasting decades, some lasting only a few months, some easily romantic, some comfortable and affectionate. Then there was this last one; intimate, volatile and oh so close to being the one.

These songs that accompany my musings always have something to do with what I am going through at the time, or one particular love I just lost along the way. This last one though, still fresh in its downfall, is described in Tim Hardin's words, written just for her. An expression of evolution, of demise, of two hearts beating as one, finding a way to say goodbye.

Labor Day's, Past and Present

2011-09-04T12:31:00.000-07:00

In 2011, it seems to be all about sports. Pennant races, college football (Lets's Go Blue!), pro football and now some abomination called fantasy football.

I remember when Labor Day was a holiday, celebrated without shopping or watching sports on TV. Memories of a schoolboy in Detroit, when school always began on the Wednesday after Labor Day. The final weekend of summer vacation, overshadowed by the realization of the loss of summer's freedoms, the most precious of which was sleeping-in. But come Wednesday, the excitement of a new grade, new classes, new teachers and the reunion with our non-summer friends quickly overcame the mourning. Everything was fresh and our prospects unlimited. New beginnings, new faces, new crushes and the new dreams. We were as invincible as the days and weeks that followed. Or at least we thought so.

Then came kids. In the South, where I spent all of those parenting days, school started in mid-to-late August, so Labor Day rained in as a lost Monday. Kids were home and bored. Parents were called upon once again to pick up the slack. Somehow it was easier, knowing that it was only one more day and in a way, a special one to us as the last family day of summer. Now, so many years later, I miss those Labor Days. It just took awhile to notice they weren't kids anymore.

Labor day at the beach, on Kiawah, was the most special Labor Day of all. Everything changed starting with the mass exodus of the tourists. The sun was a little less hot and evenings were filled again with quiet, surrounded by a magical sweet bouquet of low country charm. With just us full time residents back at the helm, the sense of community came back with greetings and smiles. The names and faces at the general store, pumping gasoline and buying overpriced milk, bread and the 50% off t-shirts, came back with comfortable familiarity. We had our beloved island back. It was Labor Day that deserved and got our enduring appreciation for what a special Monday in September it was....and will forever be.

A

No Regrets

2011-09-01T17:34:00.004-07:00

They don't write songs like this anymore. Sentiments come and go, captured in the rhymes and melodies of strangers living in the deep corners of our lives. Special words, special times, special years and special loves.

Laying here awake

2011-08-27T15:17:00.000-07:00

Laying here awake, I do nothing but think about you.

I wonder if you have found some peace without me.

I think of everything we did, said and felt across our time together.

Yes, I am still your friend. I am all that we ever were or meant to each other.

I am your lover and everlasting companion.

Those anchors do not go away or disappear, they are forged into our hearts, into our souls. The words said in anger, in hurt, are just pain without meaning, without truth.

Do not leave my life thinking I was anything less then the man you once loved.

Leave that memory alone and I will be at peace.

I am alone with my thoughts, where I need to be right now.

Laying here awake, I do nothing but think about you.

Epilogue

2011-08-22T15:11:00.000-07:00

Forever Young

2011-08-19T08:51:00.000-07:00

As these past few blogs have described, I spent this special week with my daughters. What greater gift then the enduring, eternal love between parent and child? Words can't say enough, unless you're Dylan.

May God bless and keep you always
May your wishes all come true
May you always do for others
And let others do for you
May you build a ladder to the stars
And climb on every rung
May you stay forever young

On to Columbia

2011-08-17T20:50:00.001-07:00

Wednesday night in Columbia, home of the University of South Carolina. My baby daughter is a senior now, with a boyfriend and we three shared sushi and sake tonight. Another man assuming my role as caretaker and confidant? Same as it ever was. My thoughts drift back to the desert, where I wonder what and/or who is left to fly back to? It's an all of nothing world back there, same as it ever was. 24 hours and I'm back in Charleston, counting the seconds before the flight takes me away from the most precious treasures of my life. Same as it ever was.

Shem Creek

2011-08-17T06:32:00.000-07:00

My daughter turned 23 this week. We celebrated with hamburgers at Folly Beach. The next night her friends took her out to Red's at Shem Creek. We ate Oyster Po-Boys and everyone got to meet Sarah's Dad. But the most memorable, touching moment came when one of the girls quieted everyone down and said a prayer. Among other things, she thanked God for bringing Sarah into our lives. Those were warm and glowing words. I felt part of some grand scheme and that my place in this world was exactly right. That all I had done was done under guidance and for a purpose. We get glimpses of that purpose throughout our lives, but sometimes it passes by so softly that we miss it, a subtle clue that leads us to closure, to understanding, to that elusive peace with ourselves. But last night, at Shem Creek, I got it.

Low country sunset

2011-08-16T06:15:00.000-07:00

I've never forgotten how beautiful a low country sunset can be. (One reason might be that this one is my background screen shot on my iPhone.) There isn't a day that goes by that I am not reminded of the pristine beauty that graces this quiet, hidden place, just waiting to be savored, then nurtured in a memory. Long after these eyes go dark, the infinite beauty of the marshes, shores, the 10,000 year old maritime forest, the egrets and the herons and the majesty of a pounding, exquisite thunderstorm pushing out over the sea and the short time I was a part of its grand scheme, will remain.

Tucked somewhere inside its memory will be the very special time I was here, along with the love shared between us. This will always be my home.

On the road

2011-08-12T16:12:00.001-07:00

Charleston, S.C.

2011-08-11T06:15:00.001-07:00

I'm going back to Charleston next week. I'll find my two daughters, now women in their own right along with my ex-wife and Clare, the Bichon that was as much apart of our family as any one of us. We have gone through the past few years apart, only because one day back then I went out to find something and never came home. Everything changed that day. The journey that followed was not just my journey, it was a new path for all of us, a path alone, whether any one of us were looking for it or not. For a week or so, I'm coming home.

I've written about Kiawah before. It's where the four of us, the five of us, went through ten perfect years, through the year 2000 centennial, with all of its unknowns, the mysteries of what was to follow. Not one of us knew what was coming for our family. Four years later the rains came.

It was about that time, the turn of the century, that a local South Carolina band provided the sound track for those years. That's where I am going next week. Into the depths of a of another time, another place, of this musical memory, never more appreciated as much as it is now. Who knows where the time goes? Who knows how to get it back?

Song of a Lifetime

2011-08-05T05:22:00.001-07:00

I've posted a lot of songs over the seven years of this blog. When I heard this one, I knew it was without a doubt, the song of a lifetime. If you think you have heard it before, you haven't. Please allow yourself to listen to the entire song, full screen, you will be well rewarded, especially toward the end.

A

Kiawah

2011-07-18T12:06:00.003-07:00

That barrier island that was my life a few years back. I knew at the time it would never get any better. It hasn't been that easy for a long, long while. This song came on my Pandora last night, as I lay trying to sleep. Instead of sleeping, I was immersed in the stories that brought me to this song. You say Morocco. I say Kiawah.

Gone

2011-07-14T18:53:00.004-07:00

She turned the corner and he was gone. As quickly, inexplicably, as he entered her life, he was gone. Sudden clash of thunder, gone. The instability, emotion, the anger, the passion, the love, the love, the love. Gone.

He turned the corner and she was gone. The reason for the pain falling on those left behind, gone. Times that will never be recovered, gone. Triumphs of those who loved him, who missed him, melted in the distance. He had found the one, the life that once flashed by him in a dream. There were moments, now gone.

They turned a corner and they were gone. Left behind an empty embrace that once held two years. Memories shared, two paths that became one, then broken apart, now gone. Rain falls gently on their world.

A

The world was on fire

No one could save me but you

Strange what desire will make foolish lovers do

I never dreamed that I'd love somebody like you

I never dreamed that I'd lose somebody like you

The Rise and Fall of CNBC

2011-07-11T07:20:00.000-07:00

In days past I used to wake up and immediately tune to CNBC, to Mark Haines and Erin Burnett, who between them transformed the craft of financial banter with brilliant wit and subtle charm. Now Haines is gone, a much too young and vibrant man's death that touched every viewer deeper then they knew. Burnett is playing musical chairs with the monkey-like program directors at CNN. They will destroy her.

Here we sit, viewers who beg for intelligent observational reporting. Instead, the mediocre, the bad and the ugly: The forever shifting morning crew at CNBC. Someone shoot me. Their inside smirks and unfunny jokes, their pretend journalism, their suits and ties, their hair, their insipid interviews with lying politicians, none of it even rises to the level of a joke. Cramer nauseates me. The real pillars of CNBC's morning are now dead and gone. For me, Muzak and a rolling ticker at the bottom of the screen would be just fine, an improvement, a stunning upgrade of their morning programming.

So who am I to be writing a review of a business I know so little about? Just an average viewer who was spoiled by the inquisitive genius of Haines and the girl-next-door unpretentious candor of Burnett.

Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
Till its gone.

A

The Days Ahead

2011-07-10T09:29:00.004-07:00

There are some changes coming, lets preview the days ahead so no one gets blindsided.

First, a spanking new web site for AllanTrends.com. I got a sneak preview yesterday and it is a professional job from start to finish. I like it much better then the old one, you will too.

Second, I will be making my first public appearance, here in Scottsdale, to promote trend following as the way to make money in stocks. I prepared a 40 minute presentation in Keynote, so it will be an audio-visual experience. The production manager says I need to be outfitted upscale, so I will wearing a suit that cost about 1/2 as much as my first car, a 1971 Chevrolet Vega. It had the first (and last) aluminum engine block from General Motors and after a year, it burned about a quart of oil every 100 miles. I hope the new suit does a little better.

Third, I haven't decided what the third change is going to be. But something/someone is missing these days. Maybe it was not so subtly set out in my previous blog. Or maybe its that I find myself back to all work and little play, where dreams diminish and memories fill in the holes. Yet the search goes on for that destined, or is it mythical, bright shining star; that light that lays hidden somewhere in the caverns of life.

This morning I went to Starbucks for a Verona and a shot (expresso). They know me by name there, another recent change that can only be attributed to waking up here, instead of there. And only one coffee, not two. Everywhere things have changed, everywhere a reminder that from moment to moment, life needs to be appreciated for what it is, not what it should be, or what we want it to be. Life changes, for better or for worse.

I used to get 2,000 hits a day on this blog. Since going to AllanTrends, that number has dropped in half. Maybe its my bad, for going for the money. I don't know how many of you are new here, I suspect most of you have been with me for all these years. You know me better then anyone. You know that my passion in life is not the stock market, it's passion itself; deep romantic attachment, a shared intimacy of life. With it, I cannot be defeated. Without it, I wander in the desert, no, not the literal desert that is this valley in Arizona, but the desert of lost contentment.

We find ourselves there once again, you and I. You continue to be my best friend. The only one with who I share these thoughts and feelings. That is a good thing. Or maybe that is a bad thing. I don't know, nor care anymore.

Full screen, please.

The Law of TANSTAAFL

2011-07-08T22:58:00.003-07:00

Usually its Sunday nights when I end up feeling sorry for myself. Today its Friday. Things getting better, or worse? Let's see, is it about the aging thing, or being so far away from my kids, or the guilt associated with the journey I have been on for the past seven years, the lack of a real home, the Red Wings; or is it a girl, again? Anyone care to guess?

It's the old story of boy meets girl. Boy falls in love with girl. Boy loses girl, because, because, because. Boy moves on. Boy feels sorry for himself. Time passes. Boy meets girl.......

Notice, there is no, "boy learns not to touch a hot stove."

But, this last one. She was one red hot burner. The scars will last because I kept putting my hand on the stove, over and over again. Just shy of two years worth of burns. Ouch.

Life isn't about learning. It's about loving. And the pain? It's the law of TANSTAAFL:

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.

See her how she flies
Golden sails across the sky
Close enough to touch
But careful if you try....

For her

2011-07-06T20:45:00.000-07:00

A Moment In Time

2011-07-04T00:24:00.004-07:00

Memories. I reflect back today on July 4th weekends gone by. Most of them happened on Kiawah. That's my pristine barrier island off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina. I write about Kiawah a lot on these pages, ten years that remain all of the best of me. There were my daughters growing up. You know them as they frequently appear in my essays here. But there were also the hypnotic ocean waves across tranquil sunsets, a 10,000 year old maritime forest, a bicycle and me winding through every nook and cranny of that island and when from the ages of 44 to 54 I lived my only years that ever counted.

How does one come to such a sweeping, dramatic and sad realization? It wasn't me, it was then. It reaches forward in time to find me, especially on weekends like this. I want to hide in those years and never come out. I think people like that get put away now. But if I could, I would, even if that was the price to pay. That's how precious a decade it was, of love, joy, sweet contemplation, carefree, invincible........and my own.

The army of vacationers would begin their march to the sea around sunset. As the hour or so before it became dark enough for the first flare of fireworks, those on Kiawah came together as a single community of star gazers, in ever increasing anticipation of that first flare of color and boom, when eyes lifted to the dark skies over the Atlantic in a shared 40 minutes of splendor. At the end, we picked up our chairs and blankets and wandered back home. The murmur that preceded the show, returned cloaked in quiet satisfaction that this day was special and would stay in our hearts forever.

And it has. It never once occurred to me back in those days that the memory would ever become so distant. That my years ahead would be filled with such change, turmoil and sadness. That my kids would ever grow up. That I would ever grow this old. If the magic of the universe could embrace just one moment of our lives and freeze it in time perpetuity, never to go forward, never to walk the path that lay ahead, it would be those July 4th walks home on Kiawah. Where everything was as it should be, when everything would stay as it should be, where these were not memories at all, that they would be wiped from our past and instead, just be. Where it all stood still for just one moment. And where I could stay in that one moment and never know another day.

A

Leonidas, Southern Greece

2011-06-28T08:29:00.003-07:00

Leonidas, my friend:

How are things going in your neck of the woods?

A

Greece was the first area in Europe where advanced early civilizations emerged, beginning with the Cycladic civilization of the Aegean Sea, the Minoan civilization in Crete and then the Mycenaean civilization on the mainland. Later, city-states emerged across the Greek peninsula and spread to the shores of the Black Sea, South Italy and Asia Minor, reaching great levels of prosperity that resulted in an unprecedented cultural boom, that of classical Greece, expressed in architecture, drama, science and philosophy, and nurtured in Athens under a democratic environment.

Allan on the Air

2011-06-25T07:27:00.000-07:00

I will be on the radio today, Saturday June 25th on "A Call to Rights" between noon-2:00pm PDT (probably the second hour).

------------------------------------------------------------

Two AllanTrends media events are planned for the coming month. First, I will be interviewed by Steve Kates, a local radio show personality, on Saturday, June 25th between noon and 2:00pm (probably the second hour) on KFNX (AM-1100). You can listen live in Phoenix or on the Internet at the above KFNX link;

On Saturday, July 23rd at 10:00 am, I will be giving a live presentation of the AllanTrends methodology, including a detailed look under the hood of Trend Following and why it is so effective in generating positive, profitable growth in investment accounts. The event will be covered by a local TV production company and parts of it will be available on the new, expanded web site (coming soon). The presentation will last about 60-90 minutes and will beheld at 10:00am in Scottsdale, across from the Scottsdale Post Office at 8130 N Via De Negocio (Off of 101 at Via de Ventura Exit.)

: 8130 N Via Negocio #100 Scottsdale, AZ 85258

Want to bet?

2011-06-22T12:07:00.000-07:00

If all hell breaks loose in the world financial markets this summer, who are you going to turn to? Ghostbusters? Cramer? Kramer? Abby Joseph Cohen?

This is where I am looking for protection:

My VXX Daily Trend Model is currently on a BUY SIGNAL which is underwater for the moment. Everyone says this is a "flawed' instrument and cannot be trusted. That's the kind of consensus that I like to bet against. (Although I say Cramer is a flawed instrument and cannot be trusted.......but that's just me, his ratings suggest a lot of people watch and listen to him.)

Having VXX or longer term VXX calls in your portfolio may or may not pay off this summer, but if they do pay off, it could be in a huge way. Life of contract high (split adjusted) for VXX was $480 in February of 2009. "They" say it can't happen again.

Oh, yea......want to bet?

A

MId-week Update

2011-06-21T15:31:00.000-07:00

SIlver, Trends & Trading

2011-06-19T16:20:00.002-07:00

Spending Sunday afternoon flipping through some charts, I ran across this AGQ, a Double Silver Leveraged ETF. What I am finding out at AllanTrends is that there are some stocks and ETF's that trend so well, it is almost too good to be true. See for yourself:

Another Father's Day

2011-06-18T23:27:00.004-07:00

How many are there left? I can't remember the last one I spent with my father. Some day, my daughters won't remember the last one they spent with me. A card, a phone call, an "I love you," seems so routine, but in the grand scheme of life and death, they are my treasure.

There is so much I would change if I could go back in time, back when I was all they knew and every step they took into the their new world was followed closely by the steps of their Dad. I can hear them calling up the stairs, I can see them riding their bikes up the driveway, I can still feel their tears, their fears, their joys, their wins and their losses up that ladder of growth and discovery. I was there.

Now it has come to distances and those cards, phone calls and, "I love you, Dad." We take what we can get in this world. I suppose there are some kids and Dads that don't or can't even get that.

Still, that one frozen moment in time, that one Fathers Day when we were living at the beach in South Carolina and the four of us, our family, took Dad out for dinner and bought him a blue T-shirt with a bike on the front; it was the best day of my life.

D

A Rare Opportunity

2011-06-16T08:55:00.001-07:00

This is the closing paragraph from Robert Precther's latest Elliott Wave Theorist, just out last night:

A Rare Opportunity

These are exciting times. We seem to be entering our second big payoff period. The decline of 2007-2009 was very profitable for well positioned bears, but the 2011-2016 period should prove to be an even bigger boon. To get an opportunity like this is exceedingly fortunate. It happens to only one generation in ten.

Robert Prechter hasn't always been right, but he nailed the 2007-2009 decline and then turned around and nailed the 2009-2010 rally. He turned bearish again in 2010, a little early, but says the market is now on track for a protracted decline of epic proportions. We don't have to believe, nor do we have to scoff at his prediction. Our trend models will keep us on the right side of any protracted move in the market, whether it be up or down. If he is right, we are staring at a life-changing opportunity.

I have no doubt that within a year, maybe even within a few months, we will all look back and be very glad we were here.

: DJIA Daily Trend Model & EW Analysis

Sometimes, life just sucks

2011-06-15T16:38:00.000-07:00

If you embrace this concept, that sometimes life just sucks, it ironically helps you through the sucky part. Whether it be in business, money, relationships, the Red Wings, other drivers, Jim Cramer, the weather, Jim Cramer driving, the government, (did I say relationships?), children, siblings, ex-spouses, lawyers, oh, excuse me "attorneys" (I just sent $119 to the Georgia bar to be "inactive, retired, fed-up", or whatever they call their annual fee that I cower in fear of not paying for God knows what they might do) relationships, banks, spam, oh the spam, insurance of all kinds, shoes, (yes, shoes, you have a problem with that?) relationships, one-hundred and five degrees in June and cutesy run-on sentences. Yes, sometimes, life just sucks.

But we plow on, because sometimes, life doesn't suck. Tequila, sex after tequila, the stock market, being held in the middle of the night, Italian food and the Red Wings.

There is a lot of stuff in-between, that doesn't exactly suck, but doesn't exactly not suck either. Woody Allen, iPhones, a sunset at the beach that we will never see again and one of those songs that so often grace these pages, poignant and full of memories of another time, another place, another life.

A

Zen and the Art of Trading Stocks

2011-06-12T12:11:00.002-07:00

It is hard to use the word Chautauqua in a sentence. OK, not so hard. There was a famous book of the mid-1970's titled, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance from which I have been inspired to speak to the yin and yang of trading. The concept is simple, that there are opposing forces always at work in the market. These opposites only exist in relation to each other and it is their interaction that a greater whole forms and becomes its own dynamic system.

That is why a fellow like Jim Cramer is such an idiot. For an hour a day he does a slight of hand where he paces a pea inside a walnut shell and while distracting you with his clowns hat and a whistle, rearranges the shells and then has you pull out your wallet and pick the shell that houses the pea. You are betting with the town jester for the right to be the town fool.

In other words, Cramer espouses buy a stock and hope it will go up. Romantic, but silly. You may as well hope for world peace, or diamonds on the soles of her shoes.

On the other side is what we espouse at AllanTrends and is best understood within the context of the yin and yang of the marketplace. It is the recognition of force applied to an object that determines the outcome. If a greater force pushes, the object goes one way. If a greater force pulls, the object goes the other way. Ah, but the wild card here, the key to market success, is to identify the greater force, the one that has the staying power to create a trend. One solution: look at which way the object is moving, there is the greater force.

After decades of technical trading, from moving average crossovers, to Elliott Waves, to neural nets, to channels to pattern recognition to astronomy to astrology, I was finally ready to see and understand the holy grail of trading. No, it's not a subscription to my AllanTrends. It is the concept of being one with the market. This was the essence of my two-second trading system from back in 1998, where I held up a chart to a group of traders at a seminar and asked them, after looking at the chart for only 2 seconds, "Do you wish you already owned this stock?." If the answer is, "Yes," the stock is a Buy, if the answer is, "No," the stock is a Sell, if the answer is, "I need more time," or, "I can't decide," then go on to the next stock.

No one can trade like that, it is too trite, too corny, to simplistic, too much a game, not serious investing, not credible, not Cramer.

As for credibility, it is at once secured by clothing the grail in math: The AllanTrends Algorithm. An equation when applied to a set of data derived from the immediate past measures the probable direction for the immediate future. It is an application of rational thought, in lieu of Cramer's bells and whistles, that uncovers, or at least approaches the Zen-like truth of the marketplace, "Being in the moment." My two-second test, reduced to its most basic, rational, objective, self; The holy grail of trading.

"You look at where you're going and where you are and it never makes sense, but then you look back at where you've been and a pattern seems to emerge. "

— Robert M. Pirsig (Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values)

NHL Playoffs and the DOW

2011-06-08T15:41:00.000-07:00

'
Onto the NHL Playoffs. Vancouver and Boston are in the midst of a tight series to see which team plays the Detroit Red Wings for the Stanley Cup. One of the Bruin players, Nathan Horton was knocked out the playoffs by a pretty vicious late hit by Canuck Aaron Rome. You can see the hit here. Rome was suspended for the four games, essentially putting him out of the series.

A couple of Allan points:

(1) During the regular season, the hit may or may not have resulted in a suspension, worse ones during the season did not, or if so, the suspension would be one game, two at the most;

(2) My suggestion for years has been if any player commits an infraction that results in injury to another player so as to cause the injured player to miss any games, then the player causing the injury must also miss a like number of games. Yes, that means if an illegal hit ends the career of one player, it ends the career of both.

So it looks like I agree with the suspension of Rome? No, I don't. He received extra punishment because it was the Stanley Cup playoffs. That's not in the rulebook. That's not right. Change the rule (a la my idea) or apply the existing ones. Don't shape the punishment to the importance of the player, or to the importance of the game.

How about that DJIA chart?

A

Charts & Trends

2011-06-06T15:26:00.000-07:00

AllanTrends

Weekend Update

2011-06-04T08:24:00.000-07:00

I just now sent out my Weekend Update to subscribers. Here is how it begins:

I banged the drum loudly a few months ago when I introduced the new DJIA trading algorithm, one of the best trading indicators that has come across my screen in decades. It’s first real time signal was a SELL on May 5th @ 12584  generating about a 400 point gain (so far) in less then a month,  for about a 3.2% win. The leveraged equivalent of being short the DJIA is DXD and as would be expected, it rose 6% during the same time period.  For option players, a 3% move in one month on the DJIA was easily a 100% move in puts.

In summary, our first DJIA trade has generated returns of +3%; +6%; +100%………

IF YOU ACTED ON THE SIGNAL

If you scroll through the attached Trend Tables you will see a bevy a similarly situated trades.  Successful directional signals for indices, commodities (hey, how about the Sell signal on SLV, a gain of 16% unleveraged in a month!) stocks and gold shares.  The signals are there, the algorithm is doing his/her/its job. We found something that works, but its you who has to trade it.

This week there is one new signal.........

......and this where the free preview must end, its only fair to those who are paying for the service.  You can become of them @ AllanTrends.

Turning Down

2011-06-01T13:57:00.000-07:00

Every once in awhile I post my subscribers update here, just to show how smart I am. Well, at least how well my trading system works....let's not get carried away, Allan.

A
------------------------------------------------------------------

Turning Down
No new Daily signals today, but we didn’t need any. Virtually the entire portfolio of Indices, Commodities, ETF’s and Stocks were profitable and in sync with their Daily Trends. Remember what a big deal I made about the new Dow Jones Industrial Average Trend Model? It’s early warning SELL SIGNAL is looking pretty good here and what’s more, it is closing in on a Weekly Sell.
Five of the seven Commodity trades are in positive territory, with Silver leading the way with a 15.36% gain since its recent SELL SIGNAL. Both USO (OIL) and TLT (Bonds) have gained about 5% each. Watch out for Gold, it just barely missed going LONG today.
Fourteen of the fifteen stocks in our stock portfolio are profitable, with GOOG and GS SELL SIGNALS leading the way down with 14% and 18% gains, respectively. The only lagging group are the gold stocks, but even there, a mixed picture, 50/50 profitable.
Are we on the verge of a major selloff? The DJIA Weekly and VXX Daily Models will confirm one first, so let’s keep an eye on those two trend models.
TREND MODELS
Indices & Commodities
Stocks & Golds

New Biotech Pick

2011-05-31T11:17:00.000-07:00

On August 30, 2005 I posted a blog on a new, unknown up and coming biotechnology company, Nanoviricides.  NNVC was at 8-10 cents when I ran the article and seven months later it hit $3.75.

Here is how that piece began:

In my ongoing quest for short-term trading opportunities, I have come across some services that specialize in “reverse merger” opportunities. A reverse merger stock is a stock that becomes public by buying a “shell” public company which is essentially going or already out of business. It is a quick and dirty way for a start-up to go public.

Not surprisingly, this back-door way around traditional IPO’s attracts some “substance-challenged” companies. But sometimes it attracts a gem that is just in too big a hurry to get their story out and get funding to go the traditional IPO route.

Five and one half years later, I may have uncovered another one of these reverse merger gems.  I had been researching this stock all last week.  Over the weekend I wrote up the company in my Weekend Update sent to my subscribers.  By now, they have had an opportunity to buy, as have I, so here it is on my public persona.

BIOTECHNOLOGY STOCKS

Always a soft-spot in my investors heart, when these go right they have a way of uplifting both our wallets and mankind. This is the moral soul of trading, i.e. when we win, the whole world wins with us. NNVC will one day wipe out viral diseases. CTIX may one day cure as many as half of the cancers known to mankind. While we wait, NEOP is up 30% from its most recent Buy signal.

CTIX

One of the attractions of NNVC was its, “one size fits all” approach to anti-virals. One basic structure works on all viruses. It’s not that far apart from what we do here with trend trading. One basic algorithm identifies and follows trends, with a tweak here and there to cover special situations.

Cellceutix has taken the same approach to the treatment of cancer. They have developed a drug, Kevetrin, that triggers the p53 gene, the so called, “Guardian Angel” gene. From this linked interview with the company’s CEO:

One of the major breakthroughs that sets Cellceutix apart from other biotech companies is Kevetrin’s ability to activate p53. Can you discuss what this is and why it is so significant?

p53 is known as the “Guardian Angel” gene. It’s the p53 in more than half of the cancers that is not regulating the cell properly. When Kevetrin comes in contact with the p53, it reactivates the p53 and it gets alerted to start doing its job, whether to fix the cell or to kill the cell. This has been one of the “Holy Grails” in cancer research. There have been numerous programs at the biggest pharmas working on this, and it’s hard for us to estimate how much has been spent on these programs, but we’d have to guess it has been in the hundreds of millions of dollars of research. There’s one whole class of drugs with which they attempted to do this, called Nutlins, but those were found to be defective in that they destroyed the DNA, so that wasn’t a viable option. So, it seems that Cellceutix, at this time, and with what we know, has the only activator of p53 as a cancer drug.

So let’s get to some bottom lines here that have me pretty excited about the opportunity represented by this little known biotech:

*$75M market cap, a pittance;

*Products (mainly cancer and autism) amounting to $30B in potential market sales;

*This truly remarkable development from last week:

BEVERLY, MA–(Marketwire – 05/23/11) – Cellceutix Corporation (OTCQB: CTIX) (Pinksheets:CTIX – News), a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing small molecule drugs to treat unmet medical conditions, announced today that in light of recent exceptional preclinical results regarding Kevetrin™, the Company believes it would be in its shareholders’ best interest to test Kevetrin™ against a very aggressive cancer that would be more beneficial to patients and generate more useful data for its IND filing. Cellceutix has therefore initiated a study in an animal model implanted with human pancreatic cancers.

*Management: Some very prestigious names. Read carefully the resumes of management and of the scientific advisory board, including Dr. Krishna Menon, prominent in the development and progress of NanoViricides;

*Just like NNVC, a truly phenomenal risk/reward profile. 1,000′s of percent to the upside against maybe 50% to the downside, but so what it its even 100% to the downside? A few of these in your portfolio means only half of one needs hit and your gains are enough to fill the coffers.

*Read the above press release again. Something happened in the lab in May, something they can’t completely disclose yet that made them take a 180 and go after pancreatic cancer. WHAT DO THEY KNOW? Well, I’ve seen enough to want to own of piece of whatever it is. Trends or not, this is an opportunity, let’s run with it.

CTIX Daily Trend Model

Mark Haines

2011-05-25T15:51:00.001-07:00

I posted this on my AllanTrend site this morning, it's free to all, but I'm posting it here too, because I am really sad about this and don't completely know why.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mark Haines

Posted on May 25, 2011 by Allan

If you are not watching CNBC, you may not have heard, but Mark Haines has passed away at the age of 65. It is a time like this that our lives are put in perspective for what really matters, that every breath we take is precious and the markets pale in comparison to the gift of life and the gifts that come our way in a lifetime: Children, lovers, friends, relatives and even so called strangers, like Mark Haines, that are taken for granted, until the day they disappear, suddenly, unexpectedly, sadly and irrevocably.

If it is possible to have a friend who we have never met, Mark Haines was one for me. I will miss him.

GOOG & C

2011-05-25T06:33:00.002-07:00

Here are the two latest AllanTrends signals on Google and Citibank. Two sectors a football field apart. No, the state of Rhode Island apart. No, the Indian Ocean apart. It doesn't matter, these signals work, as I have been showing here for the last 18 months.

AllanTrends

PCLN

2011-05-23T08:39:00.000-07:00

AllanTrends

Tangled Up in Blue

2011-05-22T17:03:00.000-07:00

Let them eat gold

2011-05-21T13:02:00.001-07:00

The quotation, as attributed to Marie Antoinette, was claimed to have been uttered during one of the famines that occurred in France during the reign of her husband Louis XVI. Upon being alerted that the people were suffering due to widespread bread shortages, the Queen is said to have replied, "Then let them eat, a chemical element with the symbol Au and an atomic number of 79."

Gold stocks have been on a tear for a couple of years. It's would take a lot of courage to Short one like this:

But when the trend changes, as defined by the AllanTrends algorithm, there is nothing else to do but SELL:

Let's look at the whole cycle:

The at-the-money 4 month options trade at about a $2.00 ($200 per option). That Sell Signal in early March has resulted in about a $7.50 gain. Those at-the-money puts @ about $2.00 (strike price 17) are worth about $6.50 at current stock prices. That's a gain of about 250%. Marie Antoinette would be proud.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Option trading is risky, you can lose your entire investment and get really depressed. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell options, stocks, commodities or automobiles..... and please don't sue me.

I could have been somebody

2011-05-20T06:30:00.002-07:00

No Ph.D's need apply

"Base salaries for Newport Beach lifeguards range from $58,000 for the lowest-paid officer to $108,492 for the top-paid battalion chief, according to a 2010 city report on lifeguard pay. Adding in overtime, special compensation, pension, medical benefits, life insurance and other pay, two battalion chiefs cleared more than $200,000 in 2010, while the lowest-paid officer made more than $98,000.
"All lifeguards received $400 in sunscreen allowance and two cleared $28,000 apiece in overtime and night duty pay.
"Newport Beach's lifeguards can also retire at 50 with 90 percent of their salary with 30 years of service, according to state data."
"You shoulda taken care of me just a little bit so I wouldn't have to take them ... I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, ..."

Opportunity of a LIfetime

2011-05-18T06:53:00.001-07:00

The decade long view of the Dow Jone Industrial Average uses monthly bars to portray the past and suggest the future. The devastating decline of 2007-2009 wiped out stock market fortunes. So much so, the investing public remains out of stocks, although they seemed to have found some solace in gold and silver, for now.

The chart shows a new high made on the current monthly bar, a turn lower below last months close and both right at a significant Fibonacci level. I haven't labeled the waves because I'm too lazy. Nonetheless, there is an A-B-C up from the 2009 low. My longer-term trend indicator is still trending up, but reverses down at 11,415. That's 1,000 points below current levels. The Daily version of the indicator is already short. The Weekly getting close.

Look at those signals. They don't fool around. You can sit out the next 1,000 points to be certain, you can subscriber to AllanTrends to be certain, or you can listen to Jim Cramer to be uncertain. In any case, there is a huge opportunity building in the market, those 1-3 times in a lifetime when if you are right, there are life-changing ramifications.

It's how people get rich.

A

The Holy Grail of Trading Stocks & Commodities

2011-05-16T18:32:00.003-07:00

How's that for a Google search phrase?

How are these trend models for proof of the pudding?

SLV

USO

UUP

GOOG

VIX

NEOP

DJIA

AllanTrends

A night in the life

2011-05-15T00:10:00.000-07:00

I started out tonight to write an overview of the markets, stocks, precious metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies. There are some big changes starting to rumble across the horizon, opportunities for some very profitable trades.

Then I took my daughter, who is visiting me for the week, to have dinner with some family members here in Arizona. One was missing. My first cousin (more like my sister) lost her husband a few months ago after a very long and anguished battle. We looked at old photos and remembered better times. At the end of the evening, my daughter hugged my tearful cousin and said, "It will be alright.........I love you."

This is the daughter I raised and nurtured into the miraculous young woman she has become. On the drive back to my place, she said, "Dad, I love you." We sat down to find a movie before bed and landed on, "Funny People." Adam Sandler plays a comic dying from a form of leukemia. We changed to Saturday Night Live quickly in time to find Paul Simon.

Now I am back in my room, writing these thoughts, but remembering the song that came on in the movie, just as we knew to change the channel. So I will say this for whatever it is worth and whoever may stumble across this blog tonight. Let's call it an epilogue to my previous post, "Driving without music." It's been a week and already what we had, the best of times, are slowing fading into oblivion. As much as I need to tell someone about this night, tell her, or who I thought she was, or maybe who I just wanted her to be, I can't, even though it might make her feel good that lovers can later be friends and share these things, these feelings; because I don't believe that for a minute. If you become friends, you were never really lovers in the first place. Maybe this is where all the time goes.

Shadows are falling and I'm running out of breath, keep me in your heart for awhile. If I leave you it doesn't mean I love you any less, keep me in your heart for awhile.

Driving without music

2011-05-13T17:24:00.001-07:00

A mid-week AllAllan because life happens between weekends.

I found myself driving without the radio today. No talk shows, no iPod, no music, just the silence of being alone. This is what happens when there is one, where there once were two. I thought about it, about the market, about my daughters, about the beauty of the desert, about the weather, the road, the drivers, the women, so beautiful from afar, soft and tan, silky skin and flawless smiles, long flowing hair, everywhere, just everywhere.

But most of all, I thought about her. Why this one, why did I fall so hard for so long, only to walk away and finally call it a game. And game it was. Back and forth, up and down, all the way to the end, when back didn't go forth, when down never came up. There comes a time when you both know it. From there, it's only a step away and this time I took it.

Driving in the car without music. Your head filled with memories, all good. But you and I know that wasn't the way it was. That the bad filled our times together, first as a rare exception, then as an occasional storm and near the end, it seemed all bad. But you and I know that wasn't the way it was. Even at the end there were times that were good; rare but good, times of exception, a time of love.

Who knows where the time goes?

A Mother's Dream

2011-05-08T09:51:00.001-07:00

My mother said I could do anything, have any girl, live any dream and be as happy and successful as I wanted. She believed in me. Maybe that's what we need most in our lives, someone who believes. Otherwise, we stand alone, looking across a valley of time with no one saying, "Go ahead, sweetheart, take another step." It's been nineteen years, I miss her, her loving faith and most of all, I miss her infinite hope.

I can't for the life of me

Remember a sadder day

I know they say let it be

But it just don't work out that way

And the course of a lifetime runs

Over and over again

Eat at Joe's

2011-05-07T08:46:00.000-07:00

Here is a snippet my Weekend Update that just went out to subscribers of my AllanTrends trading service. If you are here, you probably are already a subscriber. If you are not a subscriber, what is wrong with you? Probably post traumatic stress syndrome. Yes I've been there and done that. It is no fun, believe me. But the best way to snap out of it is to subscribe to my service. You can trust me, I am a doctor. (Juris).

Trend tables results:

Indices: 9 out of 12 signals profitable;

Commodity Daily: 5 out of 6 signals profitable;

Stocks/ETF’s: 10 out of 15 signals profitable;

Gold Stocks; 6 out of 10 signals profitable (after just taking off some big winners);

Weekly Commodities: 5 out of 6 signals profitable;

Weekly Gold Stocks: 9 out of 10 signals profitable for an average gain of 157.65% per stock

Chart of the Week

More cool and stuff at Joe's Diner

Silver, Part II

2011-05-04T10:02:00.000-07:00

We got a SELL signal on SLV mid-day Tuesday and subscribers were alerted to ZSL as a way to play the decline. The trend models continue to provide timely signals on commodities and I have been introducing options as way to trade these reversals in trend.

More charts & examples of how this methodology works.

Bring me the head of Osama Bin Laden

2011-05-04T07:05:00.002-07:00

Maybe not his actual head detached from his body so fast, but all of the information it may have contained about other terrorists lurking out there in the shadows. Then off with his head. Henry VII used to do that, interrogate his enemies and wives before their heads were severed. That led to even more dangerous heads (dangerous to Henry at least) rolling off the stage.

Opportunity lost. But it did exact revenge. Thing is, we could have had both, identification and perhaps locations of other killers and his damn head.

NNVC - last chance to buy under $100

2011-05-02T07:16:00.000-07:00

Treatment with NanoViricides FluCideTM Drug Candidates Resulted in a 1000-fold Reduction of Viral Load in the Lungs of Animals Infected with Lethal Dose of Influenza Virus

I've been posting about NanoViricides since it was 8c a share. My $100 share projection by 2014 stands, with my leanings now toward a higher valuation and sooner in light of every incremental step, as per the news above, that they are taking. This is the real deal, the stock of a generation, of three generations and of the 21st century. Have I made myself clear?

Jimmy Soul

2011-05-01T13:05:00.000-07:00

We are at it again, the Detroit Red Wings coasting their way to yet another Stanley Cup and once again, fighting off not only the rag-tag collection of Sharks' opposition, but also the concerted effort of the National Hockey League to avoid the embarrassment of the Wings owning Lord Stanley' silver trophy.

Unlike last year, this year's Wings are too good, too talented, too deep and too loved for the forces of evil to rid themselves of so easily. Not surprisingly, the league has responded this year by hiring out the Illuminati and Free Masons to lay in wait behind the shadowy caverns of the ice arenas, a la Tonya Harding*

Tonya Maxene^[1] Harding (born November 12, 1970) is an American figure skating champion. In 1991 she won the U.S. Figure Skating Championships and placed second in the World Championships. She was the second woman, and the first American woman, to complete a triple axel jump in competition.
She became notorious after her ex-husband, Jeff Gillooly, conspired with Shawn Eckhardt^[2] and Shane Stant to attack her skating competitor Nancy Kerrigan at a practice session, during the 1994 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.

Speaking of man-love, this series will provide the treat of watching Red Wing forward Pavel Datsyuk who will show exactly how the game of ice hockey should be played; with eloquence, style and speed.

As I post this, the first period of today's game has just ended with the Illuminati ahead 1-0. There were five penalties called in the first period, that's 10 of the 20 total minutes of the period being played by special teams. No one can beat the WIngs 5 on 5, so its a good strategy for those who would seek to deny destiny.

Ah, destiny......when will they ever learn, when will I ever learn.

SIlver

2011-04-28T07:40:00.000-07:00

Here is my SLV Trend Model going back 3-4 months. While SLV has risen about 60%, SLV calls are up 100-300%. This is how a powerful trend can turn up the volume on profits. They all aren't this good, but a few good grand slams go a log way to nourish portfolio returns.

Easter on Kiawah Island

2011-04-24T16:55:00.001-07:00

Where I lived at the beach, Easter Sunday's were dominated by the children. By plastic colored eggs hidden amid the treasures of a 10,000 year old maritime forest, snuggled up against the sands and shells of Kiawah Island.

Yes, I have written about this time and place before, a magical decade for me and my family, my girls, our dog Clare and the crumbling marriage that eventually chased me far away. But it was those early Spring Easters that arise up in my memory today. The sweet ocean air descending upon a field filled with the joy of innocent little kids, followed closely by the joy of their smiling, protective parents with the clicking of their cameras, the reuniting of old friends.

Easter on Kiawah Island, as perfect a day ever.

A

A sleepy golden storm

2011-04-02T20:31:00.001-07:00

This is for someone who will never visit here, never see this, never hear this, but like me, will always feel this.

Finale

2011-03-28T20:14:00.003-07:00

This might only make sense to those of you who have watched Californication over the past few years, or those of you who have read this blog, have been privy to a personal search for meaning, for intimacy, for love, for happiness, for fulfillment. Fantasy and reality are part of all of our lives. A character walks through a movie set and sees the moments of his life; or is it life itself that is one long movie, one that ends too soon, too sad, or maybe was too full of hope? Memories and visions that seem like a better life then we lived it.

The lost of love, the loss of a journey, the loss of one last chance.

A

Not Good

2011-03-27T18:51:00.002-07:00

What amazing karma, Japan returning the favor from World War II; radioactive Iodine 131, Cesium 137 and Xenon 133, across the Pacific and falling down on us with the rain.

What does it mean?

Not good.

They took it off of the front pages and the network news and in its place, the bombing of Libya:

Not good.

10K dead; 17K missing:

Not good.

Four nuclear reactors out of control:

Not good.

Melt down:

Not good.

Multiple meltdowns:

Not good.

Plutonium:

Not good.

Two Women

2011-03-23T09:23:00.000-07:00

These two photos on the front page of Drudge Report today (March 23), a contrast that goes far beyond the obvious. I hope some of you get what I am saying.....and showing here.

A

Here I Am

2011-03-19T19:46:00.003-07:00

They play the instrumental background of this classic Paul Simon song in one of those incessant CNBC commercials. Here is the whole, beautiful song. Expect it to resonate in your head for a while, a time to reflect on the years that have aged the man but have left the eloquent lyrics and feel of the song untouched.

Some of the time we're gone but we don't know where and we don't know where.

A

Supermoon

2011-03-18T18:04:00.000-07:00

Out of the east Saturday night, the Supermoon.
Out of the past, a talent who died way too soon.
But don't we all.........

I saw it written and I saw it say
Pink moon is on its way
And none of you stand so tall
Pink moon gonna get you all
It's a pink moon
Hey, it's a pink moon
It's a pink, pink, pink, pink, pink moon.
It's a pink, pink, pink, pink, pink moon.

I saw it written and I saw it say
Pink moon is on its way
And none of you stand so tall
Pink moon gonna get you all
It's a pink moon
Yeah, it's a pink moon

Atlantis

2011-03-13T09:56:00.000-07:00

Lost city of Atlantis, swamped by tsunami, may be found

By Zach HowardSat Mar 12, 11:36 am ET

NORTHAMPTON, Mass (Reuters) – A U.S.-led research team may have finally located the lost city of Atlantis, the legendary metropolis believed swamped by a tsunami thousands of years ago in mud flats in southern Spain.

"This is the power of tsunamis," head researcher Richard Freund told Reuters.

"Freund's discovery in central Spain of a strange series of "memorial cities," built in Atlantis' image by its refugees after the city's likely destruction by a tsunami, gave researchers added proof and confidence, he said.

Atlantis residents who did not perish in the tsunami fled inland and built new cities there, he added.

The team's findings will be unveiled on Sunday in "Finding Atlantis," a new National Geographic Channel special.

While it is hard to know with certainty that the site in Spain in Atlantis, Freund said the "twist" of finding the memorial cities makes him confident Atlantis was buried in the mud flats on Spain's southern coast.

"We found something that no one else has ever seen before, which gives it a layer of credibility, especially for archeology, that makes a lot more sense," Freund said.

Greek philosopher Plato wrote about Atlantis some 2,600 years ago, describing it as "an island situated in front of the straits which are by you called the Pillars of Hercules," as the Straits of Gibraltar were known in antiquity. Using Plato's detailed account of Atlantis as a map, searches have focused on the Mediterranean and Atlantic as the best possible sites for the city.

AllAllan is back....and its about time.

2011-03-12T20:31:00.000-07:00

It is about time.

The two of us rented a pay-per-view movie last night from Cox Cable, "Garden State." My girlfriend of 18 months, my roommate, my best friend, my love; we both really liked Garden State. She is from New Jersey which is the locale of the movie, so it brought her back to a time, to a place, to her home from long ago. My home it turns out, is still ahead.

"Garden State is a 2004 comedy-drama film written by, directed by, and starring Zach Braff, with Natalie Portman, Peter Sarsgaard, and Sir Ian Holm. The film centers on Andrew Largeman (Braff), a 26-year-old actor/waiter who returns to his hometown in New Jersey after his mother dies. The title alludes both to the nickname for New Jersey, and to lines from Andrew Marvell's poem "The Garden" ("Such was that happy garden-state,/ While man there walked without a mate").

"Zach Braff describes the themes of the movie as 'love, for lack of a better term. And it's a movie about awakening. It's a movie about taking action. It's a movie about how life is short, go for it now. My character says, 'I'm 26 years old, and I've spent my whole life waiting for something else to start. Now I realize that this is all there is, and I'm going to try to live my life like that. I have this theory that your body goes through puberty in its teens, and the mind goes through puberty in your twenties," he says. "[Andrew] is dealing with issues that you are going through all the time going into your thirties. He's lost and lonesome, which is something I definitely felt in my twenties'."

He didn't get past the thirties in his explanation. But maybe this dialogue from late in the movie explains it for the rest of us. It is between Andrew (Braff) and Sam, (Natalie Portman) Andrew's new-found love interest. The two met while Andrew was in town for the funeral:

Andrew: You know that point in your life when you realize the house you grew up in isn't really your home anymore? All of a sudden even though you have some place where you put your shit, that idea of home is gone.

Sam: I still feel at home in my house.

Andrew: You'll see one day when you move out it just sort of happens one day and it's gone. You feel like you can never get it back. It's like you feel homesick for a place that doesn't even exist. Maybe it's like this rite of passage, you know. You won't ever have this feeling again until you create a new idea of home for yourself, you know, for your kids, for the family you start, it's like a cycle or something. I don't know, but I miss the idea of it, you know. Maybe that's all family really is. A group of people that miss the same imaginary place.

Sam: [cuddles up to Andrew] Maybe.

I left in that last line about Sam cuddling up to Andrew as it is a natural lead-in from how things went from the start, with the two of us watching the movie, eating pizza in bed, watching TV on a near perfect Friday night. It was a few hours later when everything changed.

It started with her 15 minute soliloquy, or should I say sermon, of how her home is a moving target and you find it when you find the right person to fall in love with; how she thought she was home with her first two husbands, but she was wrong.....and that she still wants that right partner, the one who, "gets her, understands her, feels right for her and when happens, she will know it."

A frozen moment in time, we both realized what had just been said. Words cast out in a searing flurry of honesty; brutal, irreversible.

When two people are so far apart on their respective paths, there is nothing left to do. My bad, for reaching so hard for a home, for a love that in one fell swoop, became just some imaginary place.

Time is running out, the first lesson of turning 60.

A

Working in a coal mine

2010-11-18T09:11:00.000-07:00

Five o'clock in the mornin'
I'm all ready up and gone
Lord I am so tired
How long can this go on?

Here is a 12 month track record of the SPY Daily Trend Model. The table that follows contains entries (closing price of SPY day of signal) as well as "Best level" which marks the best price level achieved for each individual trend.

SPY Daily Trend Model

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results

There are many observations contained in these results. Striking is how successful the signals have been "intra-signal," that is, before slippage steals points leading into the next signal......But there's an App for that, especially for those trading highly leveraged options seeking to turn quick profits rather then waiting for reversing signals.

Consider also the effect of a 2X or 3X leveraged ETF applied to the net return compilations.

Maybe most important of all, no one signal had make or break power over the 12 months of results. Of the seven closed signals, three, almost half, were net losers.

This blog is for perspective, it is for discipline, it is for perseverance, its for going to work each day with a game plan, with strategies and with realistic, yet achievable, expectations.

Workin' in a coal mine
Goin' down down down
Workin' in a coal mine
Whop! about to slip down

Is eight enough?

2010-11-16T08:38:00.000-07:00

Eight is a core Fibonacci number (aren't they all?) as well as the number of hours in a typical work day in the colonies. These eight-hour trading models appear to work well in bridging the gap between shorter-term and intermediate term trend models.

DJIA 8 Hour AllanTrend Model

VXX 8-Hour AllanTrends Model

If these two new signals hold, it would appear that an Intermediate term reversal is at hand.

A

"All in all, just another brick in the wall."
-Benjamin Disraeli

NNVC - Why this is only the beginning

2010-11-15T07:13:00.001-07:00

Press Release Source: NanoViricides, Inc. On Monday November 15, 2010, 7:00 am EST
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company") reports that its optimized FluCide™ drug candidates achieved dramatic reduction in viral load within the lungs of animals infected with a lethal dose of H1N1 influenza virus.

The Company has previously announced that these optimized FluCide drug candidates demonstrated dramatically improved survival in this animal study. We now report that there was good correlation between viral load reduction and the length of survival.

The most effective FluCide candidate demonstrated a fifteen-fold (15X) greater viral load reduction as compared to Tamiflu(r) (Roche), and a thirty-fold (30X) greater viral load reduction as compared to untreated animals. Tamiflu demonstrated a viral load reduction of only twofold (2X) compared to the untreated animals in this high infection, lethality study. The viral load is a measure of the amount of infectious influenza virus in the lungs of infected animals. This profound decrease in viral load is consistent with the observed substantial increase in length of survival upon nanoviricide treatment. The Company previously reported that animals treated with this FluCide candidate survived for as long as 18.1 days on average, compared with only 7.8 days for Tamiflu treated animals. A survival length of 21 days would be considered indefinite survival in this animal model.

The studies were conducted by Dr. Krishna Menon, PhD, VMD, MRCS, at KARD Scientific, MA. One million virus particles of Influenza A Strain A/WS/33 (H1N1) were aspirated directly into the lungs of mice. A repeat infection was performed at 22 hrs. This influenza model was designed to be uniformly fatal in 100% of the infected, untreated animals within 5 days after infection. Treatment with both FluCide candidates and Tamiflu commenced 24 hours after the initial viral infection. Tamiflu was administered orally twice daily at 20mg/kg (i.e. 40mg/kg/day) while the nanoviricides were intravenous injections at 100mg/kg every 48 hrs.

“Treatment with the Nanoviricide compounds resulted in a profound reduction in viral load. Other overt parameters of virus infection were similarly decreased. In addition, survival time was significantly increased,” said Krishna Menon, PhD, President of KARD Scientific.

The nanoviricides have been well tolerated with no overt adverse effects observed even in animals treated for more than 2 weeks. The Company, therefore, believes that dosage of the nanoviricides can be further increased to achieve greater levels of effectiveness. Additional data related to various parameters including histology and cytokines are pending from this study. The Company plans to report on the same as the datasets are analyzed.

Can You Make Money Off A Chart LIke This?

2010-11-11T10:14:00.000-07:00

DJIA 240 Minute Trend Model

OR A CHART LIKE THIS?

AMZN Daily Trend Model

OR A CHART LIKE THIS?

GS Daily Trend Model

OR A CHART LIKE THIS?

BIDU Weekly Trend Model

OR A CHART LIKE THIS?

GLD Weekly Trend Model

My private email list - subscription service will soon be going to a new website. The site will have the advantage of near real time signals and a forum to discuss these charts and models, including special request charts. I'll be there too. I've kept the price of this service the same almost since inception. The added value of a live web site may be worth a lot more. We are all here to make money......me too. Maintaining the service has cut into my time to trade. The difference has to be made up somewhere. If you can't make money with these trend models, in significant multiples of the subscription cost, maybe you shouldn't be trading.

Yes, this is a hard sell. But if I raise the cost of a subscription when the new site goes live (for new subscribers only, current subscribers are locked in to their current rates), it shouldn't and won't come as a surprise. I think this service is worth every penny of its cost.......and a whole lot more.

FIND SOMETHING THAT WORKS. THEN TRADE IT.

Freebie

2010-11-10T08:35:00.000-07:00

Here is yesterday's end-of-day commentary as it went out to subscribers:

Trading Notes

It was about this time in early November, 47 years ago, when our lives were so innocently headed for the single most devastating shock to our society in modern history. To be followed on an even grander scale just 38 years after that, September 11, 2001. So when I saw the market start to sell off this afternoon, in quiet, anonymous bidding, it occurred to me that this just might be how the next one starts. An innocuous late day sell off that we have been conditioned by now to ignore, a few 60 minute models flipping SHORT, again, something so meaningless lately we hardly ever report it. Then even quieter trading into a quiet close and no once even considers that it may be different this time.

My worlds were rocked in 1963 and again in 2001. One event shaped the first half of my life. The second event is shaping the rest of my life. Where-ever we are at any one time in this 4th dimensional continuum of being, it remains invisible to these third dimensional eyes. As it must be.

But there is a tether that brings it all together. The financial markets and how we as a society behave as one was described by Robert Precther in his book, "Socionomics." Just a few short weeks ago, Prechter wrote that we were engulfed in the greatest financial top of all time. Each day that it doesn't arrive, is just one more day that it is closer. So when I see an innocuous little sell-off creeping into a late and largely forgettable Tuesday afternoon, I stop for a moment, think back 9 and 47 years ago and then start paying a little more attention.

A

NNVC - update

2010-11-09T08:15:00.001-07:00

I can think of a half dozen fundamental explanations that are plausible and there are probably just as many that are beyond my understanding and/or knowledge.

What I do know is that on November 3, NNVC reversed LONG @ $1.08. I also know that if NNVC closes this week above $1.33 it's Weekly model will reverse LONG.

Warp Drive

2010-11-07T11:27:00.004-07:00

It's been about 10 months since beginning the trend following quest via private email subscriptions and occasional forays here on the public side. I am days away from shifting the entire kitnkabooodle over to my own domain with public and private portals. We are beta testing now, that's how close.

In the words of everybody's mayor, Ed Koch, "How am I doing?"

Let's start with the Gold and Silver Basket. Here are the current real time positions and performance of the most recent signals from the portfolio of gold and silver stocks and ETF's:

The only difference between this table and my subscriber table is that in the subscriber table there is a column which contains a reversal level at which the current position will reverse. The average return for all positions shown is +50.36% The Weekly version of the Gold and Silver Performance analysis shows and average return of +109.21%.

Turning to individual stocks and select ETF's, here again is the real time positions and performance table of the most recent signals, leaving out the reversal levels:

Here the average return for all positions is +19.06%, while the Weekly average performance return is +49.36%.

Finally, let's take a look at what I call the Major Market Trend Models: SPX, QQQQ and VXX. These models also include intraday positions, based on hourly and/or 240 minute time frames. Note the significance of the Daily models:

Simply adhering to the Daily Trend, not only in this table, but in all of the above tables, adds up to a nice edge in trading. Yes, I think we have something that works. Now let's trade it.

Past results are no guarantee of future performance.

I learned about the Law of TANSTAAFL from a psychology professor at the University of Michigan, circa 1971:

THE AIN'T NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The returns and results set out above come with some costs. First, you have to keep up, know where the price reversals are on every position you are in, or want to be in. Second, you need to have the conviction to pull the trigger, a much easier said then done undertaking. A few weeks of following these models work their magic usually takes care of that business.

Finally, everything here comes under the umbrella of a subscription to these trading models. This is what you give to me in exchange for these models, offering them, maintaining them, analyzing and tweaking them. Some extras get thrown in along the way, including some speculative stock gems that come my way as well as my own macro view of financial themes and especially how they can be exploited for outstanding gains, all in concert with the models.

As for the new site with all of its bells and whistles, near real time charts and models, a private forum to ask me questions and/or for subscribers to banter back and forth about what opportunities they see and are acting upon, the price of a subscription will remain the same, at least at first. But as we grow and participants in the forum increase, the price may also increase as the best way to maintain value for existing subscribers.

It's been a great ride so far, but we are about to enter warp drive.

A

Buy & Holding Long Term Trends

2010-11-05T08:51:00.000-07:00

The stock market is a marathon for longer term investors. The Buy & Hold crowd was popular in the late 20th Century before being wiped out in the 2000-2002 debacle on Wall Street. Perhaps no group better then these conservative investors can benefit more from the trend models. We can describe it as "Buy & Holding Long Term Trends." Lets take a look at few Weekly Trends that we follow on the private e-mail list:

NNVC Weekly Trend Model

BIDU Weekly Trend Model

GORO Weekly Trend Model

REE Weekly Trend Model

VXX Daily Trend Model

FIND SOMETHING THAT WORKS.

THEN TRADE IT.

Three new names

2010-11-04T07:01:00.000-07:00

I gave these three new names to my subscribers over the weekend. As I wrote at that time,

These three names are HIGHLY SPECULATIVE and depart from the usually conservative nature of our Trend Following methodology. It's possible that all three can be cut in half in week, a day, or an hour. Conversely, all three could soar, doubling or tripling, or even more in a week, a day, or an hour. HOW we make money here is no less important then MAKING MONEY. We've seen that the Trend Models work i.e. they make money, so we are allowed to take a flier, or two, or in this case three, every once in awhile.

Mega Uranium - MGA (Toronto Exchange) / MGAFF (Pink Sheets)
Pelangio Exploration - PX.V (Venture Exchange) / PGXPF (Pink Sheets)
Golden Predator - GPD.TO (Toronto Exchange) / GPRXF (Pink Sheets)

Mega Uranium

Pelangio

Golden Predator

NNVC - Buy Signal

2010-11-03T07:06:00.002-07:00

For what seems like an eternity, NNVC has been on a Daily Sell Signal. Things look to be changing today:

NNVC Daily Trend Model

If NNVC closes today above $1.08 it will generate its first Buy signal since August. Although not perfect, these Buys on NNVC have been very good, some leading to excellent returns.

On the fundamental side, here is a recent quote from Patrick Cox who writes, Breakthrough Technology Alert:

NanoViricides is on the precipice of a mammoth breakthrough — they hold what is likely the cure to all worldly viruses. In combination with that, NanoViricides holds a virtual license to profit through the FDA voucher system.

Best of all, the story hasn’t hit the mainstream media yet and your opportunity to join this transformational move is still here.

Incidentally, we know that small biotechs are particularly subject to irrational vacillations. It’s inevitable that this company will be bouncing in weeks and months to come. Right now, however, almost nobody knows what I’ve said in this report. If you plan to buy, be patient and pick up stock when prices are down.

If you jump in and bid the price of this small cap up too high, it will attract attention and the bargains could be gone for good. And please don’t settle for short-term gains of a few hundred percent. The long-run potential of this technology is far, far greater — and today’s opportunity truly is once in a lifetime.

Back when NNVC was under $0.50 I suggested that buying $10,000 worth of NNVC will be worth $1,000,000 by 2014. Development of the company's anti-viral platform in the past year is consistent with that forecast. If anything, I am way low as NNVC is getting ready to become front page news in every medical journal across the world. Again from Patrick Cox:

Next on the list is HIV. Back in 2008, spectacular results were announced for HIVCide in Israel. Based on the findings there, it was suggested that the company had attained a “functional cure.” This is due to the drug’s ability to decrease the amount of circulating virus and to suppress the virus exiting infected cells in which it was sequestered. HIVCide should allow an affected person to live an essentially normal life, as virus load is so low that the virus cannot be transmitted.

Want to put a price on the worth of an antiviral that conquers HIV?

Even I am not so bold.

A

NNVC - news

2010-11-01T07:27:00.001-07:00

NanoViricides, Inc. Reports Dramatically Extended Survival for FluCide™ Treated Animals in an Influenza Lethality Study

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company") reported today that its FluCide™ drug candidates demonstrated dramatically improved survival in animals administered a lethal dose of influenza virus. Animals treated with all of the different influenza nanoviricide drug candidates survived for dramatically longer periods as compared to Tamiflu® treated animals.

Animals treated with the best of the optimized FluCide nanoviricide drug candidates survived greater than twice as long (18.1 days) as opposed to the animals treated with Tamiflu (only 7.8 days). In a previous study, the Company had reported that animals treated with the then best anti-influenza nanoviricides survived for as long as 13.9 days in the same animal model.

We are extremely happy with the substantially improved performance achieved in our optimization efforts,” said Randall Barton, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer of the Company, adding, “An increase in dosage is now likely to lead to total survival even in this completely lethal virus challenge model.”

“Our Influenza Program is progressing satisfactorily towards a pre-IND submission to the FDA in the near future,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.

Comment: It would be nice to see the stock pop, even double on this news, but whatever it does matters less then the significance of this development. Put away your trading hat for a moment, no, put it back on, and realize how this relates to NNVC's progress from a speculative, unheard of, shot in the dark biotechnology company to becoming one of the big boys on the block.

A

Something so right

2010-10-31T11:40:00.000-07:00

You can listen to a song a hundred times and never really hear it. Then a random fluke of fortune changes everything. On the 101st time it finds its way through and it resonates.

There is an inspired serendipity to my life. A theme that underlies all that I have done, every decision I have made and every path I have traveled. On Halloween a year ago, that instinct came alive and my wandering found a home.

A

How can you not trade this?

2010-10-28T10:53:00.000-07:00

VXX_60 Trend Model

VXX_240 Trend Model

VXX Daily Trend Model

Let me count the ways:

(1) Just trade VXX itself for Long & Short;

(2) Trade XXV (inverse VXX) for VXX-Shorts;

(3) Trade SPY or QQQQ inversely for VXX signals, i.e. SPY LONG for VXX SHORT signals.

Forget about "correlation with VIX," just look at the Trend Models.

XXV Daily Trend Model

SPX Weekly

2010-10-25T07:06:00.000-07:00

The SPX_Weekly charts below have embedded upon them low and high volatility trend models. The volatility settings determine how sensitive the trend model is to price volatility. Higher volatility settings react to smaller moves in price to reverse trend, whereas the lower volatility settings require more price movement before reversing.

SPX Low Volatility Trend Model

SPX High Volatility Trend Model

Both trend models do a fine job of capturing major trends in the market. The trade off is better entries/exits from the higher settings, but better accuracy and less trading from the lower settings. In either case, the trend models add a tradable big picture advantage.

National Treasure

2010-10-23T15:10:00.000-07:00

Bob Dylan is one of the most influential figures of the 20th century, musically and culturally. Dylan was included in the Time 100: The Most Important People of the Century where he was called "master poet, caustic social critic and intrepid, guiding spirit of the counterculture generation. Howard Sounes, biographer of Bob Dylan, placed him among the most exalted company when he said, "There are giant figures in art who are sublimely good—Mozart, Picasso, Frank Lloyd Wright, Shakespeare, Dickens. Dylan ranks alongside these artists."

I know two people who have seen Dylan in concert within the past few weeks. I saw him in Boston circa 1975 as part of his "Rolling Thunder Review" tour. At the beginning of the second set, just after intermission, Dylan stood behind a full length curtain with Joan Baez. As the curtain began to rise it revealed the duo singing, "Diamonds and Rust." Those chills resonate with me to this day as I recall that moment in my life...and his. Only a year away from 70 he is still touring, a living, breathing, singing, national treasure.

Shadows are falling and I’ve been here all day
It’s too hot to sleep, time is running away
Feel like my soul has turned into steel
I’ve still got the scars that the sun didn’t heal
There’s not even room enough to be anywhere
It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

Gold Mania

2010-10-22T11:00:00.001-07:00

This gold mania reminds me of the tech mania of the late 1990's that culminated in the great tech bubble top of 2000. As you may recall, that ended very badly. This time around, there are our trend models, so let's have a look at GLD:

GLD Hourly Trend Model

GLD Daily Trend Model

It's the Daily Model that is the key here. Sitting right on the trend line, either it finds support or knives through for a SELL Signal. The hourly model above is suggesting the latter.

GLL is the double short ETF for gold and as shown on the chart below, has just reversed LONG:

GLL Daily Trend Model

Bottom line, there are reasons to be cautious on gold right now, but unless and until the Daily GLD Model reverses SHORT, the intermediate uptrend is still intact.

US Dollar - UUP

2010-10-19T08:25:00.000-07:00

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to most markets. Thus a rise in the dollar correlates to a drop in stocks, gold and anything else that is priced in dollars. Lets take a look at a chart of UUP, the bullish ETF for the dollar:

UUP Daily Trend Model

Five waves down, a break-out gap above the trend regression channel and an imminent LONG signal from the trend model. If UUP runs back to just the late August high at $24.22, it gains 7.00%. But, with minimal premium on UUP calls, a 7.00% rise will likely generate triple digit gains on in-the-money call options, subject only to the call's expiration month. I wouldn't look at any expiration closer then December, but next March might make the best cents (sorry) giving plenty of time for the dollar and UUP to turn up and run.

A

Causes of a sick economy

2010-10-18T10:45:00.001-07:00

I just made a quick trip to Starbucks and realized what is wrong with our economy, in fact, in our society:

(1) Traffic lights. This is getting out of hand. I counted seven lights in the one mile trip to Starbucks. What do all of these sick jokes cost us? How about the anger and frustration, especially as a result of those self-absorbed, callous and cold-blooded drivers who trigger lights by radar coming out of some dinky side-street? How about the extra fuel used while idling at forever red lights? I'll bet we could be self-sufficient in oil just by cutting down 10% of traffic lights in our major cities. Or the wear and tear on brakes and the who knows what that black crap is being sent into the atmosphere every time our brakes are applied;

(2) Parking lot speed bumps. Why are they so high? They are more like walls then bumps, I have to speed up just to get the momentum to get over some of them;

(3) Photo-radar. George Orwell would have a field day with these big-brother intrusions into our privacy and well-being. How can a society be productive while we cower in fear every time we drive to a store or work, or to visit a sick relative in the hospital, or worse yet, a trip downtown to feed the hungry or to save the lives of children caught in house fires.

I imagine those UFO's are laughing there oval heads off as they hover and observe our species subverting our mobile technology and destroying what dignity we have left as a civilization.

Power to the people.

Another Monday

2010-10-18T06:28:00.000-07:00

Not much commentary is needed here. A 240 minute chart of the DJIA covering the past three months, the DJIA Trend Model, the current price of the index and the reversal level needed to reverse the trend SHORT.

Everything else is just noise.

Another Sunday

2010-10-17T12:45:00.000-07:00

Another Sunday and as usual, we depart from the markets for something warmer, more lyrical and usually very personal.

Here is our deal, I provide market insights the rest of the week, you read and listen to the words and music (in its entirety) found here on Sundays.

Deal?

If a song appears here a second time, its not a mistake, it is just that much more meaningful. If it appears without much commentary from me, it is even more meaningful.

Deal?

A

Something wicked this way comes

2010-10-14T10:08:00.000-07:00

I just have to post this chart. The market last topped in October, 2007. But look here, the financials as represented by XLF, peaked in February, 2007:

XLF Weekly Trend Model

This year, XLF reversed SHORT in May and remains SHORT, although a little underwater as of today. But as shown on the above chart, the SHORT signal of early 2007 was also underwater for several weeks before the XLF came crashing down with a 71% decline.

Another omen that something wicked this way comes.

A

SPX, Dollar & Wings

2010-10-14T06:14:00.001-07:00

How important is the value of the dollar for stocks? For some insight into this relationship, here are two charts, UUP for the dollar and SPX for the stock market:

UUP Daily Trend Model

SPX Daily Trend Model

This looks like a step for step correlation to me. The implication is that no meaningful decline in the market should take place without a corresponding rise in the dollar.

Which leads me to the Detroit Red Wings. Las Vegas has them at 10-1 to win the Stanley Cup this season. I have them at 1-1. This discrepancy could end up being the best bet of all, regardless of the value of the dollar or level of the SPX.

In any case, three markers to keep an eye on in the coming months.

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