tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post8723028449940178634..comments2023-10-20T05:43:46.254-07:00Comments on All Allan: My biggest mistakeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-88767564298444846372009-03-09T13:24:00.000-07:002009-03-09T13:24:00.000-07:00NNVC down to 61 cents, please get back up or else ...NNVC down to 61 cents, please get back up or else I will feed you ViagraAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-23164184982352723922009-03-08T17:30:00.000-07:002009-03-08T17:30:00.000-07:00One other point. If you are going to just hunt for...One other point. If you are going to just hunt for long-term trends, it sounds great on paper, but be prepared to be wrong 60% of the time or more.<BR/><BR/>Basically, you probe and probe for a long-term trend, and once you get one, you hold on to it. <BR/><BR/>Most don't have the psychological strength to follow a trading system that is wrong 65% of the time. <BR/><BR/>Test the 20 day moving average. I'm sure it made money in stocks the past few years, but I doubt it was right more than 40% to 45% of the time. <BR/><BR/>AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-71764356880921834242009-03-08T17:25:00.000-07:002009-03-08T17:25:00.000-07:00Alan,You had a great call. The stock market and bo...Alan,<BR/><BR/>You had a great call. <BR/><BR/>The stock market and bond market were in two massive multi-decade trends so buy and hold made sense. <BR/><BR/>Few markets uncork huge trends like that. Even then, the market rarely goes straight up or down, and with all this leverage in today's investment vehicles, on average, the buy and hold or sell and hold strategy will lead to ruin most of the time. <BR/><BR/>As a result, you have to trade in and out to insure you will survive to trade again tomorrow. <BR/><BR/>Before profits, that is the #1 goal -- having enough capital to trade again tomorrow. <BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, the shorter the holding period, the less the trend and cycle component in the price data and the higher the noise component. <BR/><BR/>Longer-term trading gives you a higher trend and cycle component, but more risk because you are in the market so long. <BR/><BR/>Short-term holding periods gives you a lower trend component to ride in the price data, but their is less risk of ruin. <BR/><BR/>I fully understood that, but never quite figured that out where the best place was to be on on the holding period spectrium. Once I got married and had kids, I didn't have the time to get to the bottom of that.<BR/><BR/>AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-29043110741393265802009-03-08T15:29:00.000-07:002009-03-08T15:29:00.000-07:00Dont spend money on courses....just keep reading a...Dont spend money on courses....just keep reading and educate yourself.<BR/><BR/>I have found out that even in my professional, people that teach dont really know the real tricks!Ilya Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08570214811340261606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-15146815092746280072009-03-07T19:20:00.000-07:002009-03-07T19:20:00.000-07:00Re: Markets The Red Wings are losing to Columbus ...Re: Markets <BR/><BR/>The Red Wings are losing to Columbus 8-3 right now. Armageddon is at hand.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-30824426213284977232009-03-07T19:19:00.000-07:002009-03-07T19:19:00.000-07:00MMM: For $13.59 you can buy his book at Amazon, wh...MMM: For $13.59 you can buy his book at Amazon, which would a great introduction to trend following. I don't know anything about his course, so, no comment.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-49935874762773707252009-03-07T19:03:00.000-07:002009-03-07T19:03:00.000-07:00Allan,I visited Michael's website.He is offering a...Allan,<BR/>I visited Michael's website.<BR/><BR/>He is offering a course for for 1300.<BR/><BR/>I have not been successful so far in my efforts to make some money in the market and am desperate to get ir right.<BR/><BR/>Is this something that you would recommend ?<BR/><BR/>Thanks.MakeMoreMoney!https://www.blogger.com/profile/04406895205499355241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-66437083261086280362009-03-07T16:43:00.000-07:002009-03-07T16:43:00.000-07:00Nice job Allan. I am reading Your every post with ...Nice job Allan. I am reading Your every post with great interest.<BR/>I can seen many covering on Friday, as market is oversold. I am not sure, if the ones selling, actually follow technical pictures. Same happened in October and also in January. <BR/>What's Your take for next week? I think the small rally ending friday is more like a regular pattern - market getting a breath. I've seen this many times before over the last couple of months. Should be no surprise, if the selling pressure resumes.<BR/><BR/>Keep it up. thanksSpeedy Conzaleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03215281152098713144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-79259988354504989642009-03-07T13:24:00.000-07:002009-03-07T13:24:00.000-07:00Allan,Great call and hats off to you.And newbies l...Allan,<BR/>Great call and hats off to you.<BR/><BR/>And newbies like me thank you for teaching us so many things that we would never have learnt /cared to learn.<BR/><BR/>Can you please explain the "trend following" system and where is it available?<BR/><BR/>Also, what do you think about Friday's market action. Recovering in the last 30 minutes. Will it translate into a higher open on Monday ?<BR/><BR/>And do you trade ES and the like ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com