tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post1374528287813502313..comments2023-10-20T05:43:46.254-07:00Comments on All Allan: Black Day in JulyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-37119467433625777692009-07-05T15:07:44.905-07:002009-07-05T15:07:44.905-07:00allan, thanks for the all the updates. any thought...allan, thanks for the all the updates. any thoughts on news for nnvc anytime soon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-46680483912391372542009-07-05T06:47:07.965-07:002009-07-05T06:47:07.965-07:00>Although my discretionary account still outper...>Although my discretionary account still outperforms<br /><br />That's the primary reason that I may drop automation in the not-too-distant future. Not because I'm worried about the long-term results but simply because I trade better than it does. <br /><br />It was quite a boon my first year, though, because my discretionary trading was horrendous. :DMichael Lomkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11792842016865423159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-37403228860713186012009-07-05T06:39:52.512-07:002009-07-05T06:39:52.512-07:00>That type of trading IMO an accident waiting t...>That type of trading IMO an accident waiting to happen<br /><br />I've had a lot of people tell me that and there's no way to reply. It won't blow up unless/until it does. <br /><br />I've been with them for 18 months now. The draw downs are too substantial for my tastes (60% twice and 35% or so twice), the 2008 return was 300%. 2009 is still down but not enough to take back last year's profits. The good news is that the $5k portfolio is the best performing so dipping in a toe isn't too big of a deal.Michael Lomkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11792842016865423159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-86278649799291912182009-07-05T01:46:11.421-07:002009-07-05T01:46:11.421-07:00Thanks Mike, I recognize your handle now from the ...Thanks Mike, I recognize your handle now from the MTP references. <br /><br />I rarely trade either BWT or MTP intra day, concur with your impressions of BWT, it's a lot of hype - the do indeed co-incide with MA crossovers and the Precision trend paint me bars are Heiken Ashi with changeable logic....needless to say that was one 3500 purchase that I wish I did not make.<br /><br />I do however use the %r Stoch myself because it clarifies other supporting signals.<br /><br />The others are pretty much redundant manipulations of price....but Allan's use of GET with BWT is very good and promising...I think he has found a possibly sustainable way of making good pseudo-mechanical trading decisions.<br /><br />On automated systems, I can see (via your use of MiniAnalyst) why one needs to be vary of algos.<br /><br />That type of trading IMO an accident waiting to happen....<br /><br />But a lot of conservative compounding strategies do exist that offer 20-35% yearly gains with very low draw downs (15-23%) with very large gains to be had over time and compounding.<br /><br />I personally trade an account that has a history of 27% annual gain compounded to have very large ROI over it's 4year history with compounding, it's not very flashy or exciting but relentlessly plugs away everyday makes small singles and compounds it's leverage once it doubles. After year 3and 4 the returns have started making "stupid" money while maintaining the same risk profile. Obviously the catch here is time and added capital needed to make th compounding possible but naturally there are several ways to go about it.<br /><br />Although my discretionary account still outperforms pretty much all 4 of the other automated accounts.<br /><br />Perhaps we shall make more contact when MTP 6.5 real time comes out....I am really interested in that logic.<br /><br />Best.<br />Sandy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-68026229552798671892009-07-04T19:12:43.864-07:002009-07-04T19:12:43.864-07:00>End of trends statistically rarely mark beginn...>End of trends statistically rarely mark beginning of new trends<br /><br />No, but you can make money on corrections if they are deep enough.<br /><br />Winning 30% of the time is fine if your wins are much larger than the losses. Most people don't have the stomach for the equity curve, that's all. I trade some automated systems and it can be scary at times.<br /><br />My BWT chart only had one bad trade in the last three trading days. I intend to post a chart at the end of each day, so feel free to check my blog if you're curious.<br /><br />http://mlomker.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452e54d69e2011571ae4599970b-popupMichael Lomkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11792842016865423159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-90764013395675827722009-07-04T17:08:15.916-07:002009-07-04T17:08:15.916-07:00Mike and Allan,
Does the marking of trends by BWT...Mike and Allan,<br /><br />Does the marking of trends by BWT or other trend following algorithms necessary end in reversal to the "other" side. End of trends statistically rarely mark beginning of new trends, inter sped with periods of consolidation during which 100% of trend following software get chopped to pieces.<br /><br />Not to say that end of trends always mean consolidation but in most markets (even in trending ones) periods of consolidation are the norm rather than the exception. Take all multi-million dollar automated strategies that operate on trend following non discretionary algos "normally" operate at 30 - 60% win ratios. A further edge is gained only by sustained and competent discretionary trader intervention.<br /><br />I doubt if reversal techniques will succeed on BWT. They haven't so far on my own testing on ES intra day but maybe different on either different markets or time frames.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-89708182544347935802009-07-04T13:00:05.244-07:002009-07-04T13:00:05.244-07:00>a "stop" is an exit
Yeah, either th...>a "stop" is an exit<br /><br />Yeah, either the stop takes you out when you move it up with the trade at a profit or a profit target takes you out (entering on a bracket order).<br /><br />BWT can be traded without a bracket (you could always put in a 'disaster' stop on entry). The reason for this is that it'll reverse directions if the market goes against you. On a 5min chart it is usually a 2-3 point loss on ES. <br /><br />BWT recommends cherry picking trades rather than just trading signal to signal. Looking at my charts, though, I don't really see a good reason to not trade signal to signal.<br /><br />I've experimented with taking contracts off along the way (say at 2,3,5 points) but the math never works out. On a really bad trade you're going to take the stop on all contracts so why would you want the 5+ point trades to only be on a partial position? I don't see how that can work long-term but if someone wants to school me... :DMichael Lomkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11792842016865423159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-25931071060992784732009-07-04T11:07:15.037-07:002009-07-04T11:07:15.037-07:00I remember the Detroit Riots very well, nobody wen...I remember the Detroit Riots very well, nobody went down to Woodward to drag race from Ted's towards Detroit. Having grown up in a sleepy little town way out in the suburbs, everyone hung out at the local Dairy Queen talking about what was happening. It is actually hard to believe that was the only time Detroit burned as there were so may problems there over the years.<br /><br />Gordon Lightfoot huh? Amazing.. <br /><br />SaraAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17030293781653234615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-59124858144819795422009-07-04T10:40:45.675-07:002009-07-04T10:40:45.675-07:00ok....thanks.
some add'l food for thought.......ok....thanks.<br /><br />some add'l food for thought....<br /><br />the strong conical shape of BW Tick Volume Oscillator on ^SPX Daily dated 3/13/09, (in addition to further confirmation from BBand and CCI), is akin to the following analogy....<br /><br />The Weather Channel...in late August....showing the formation of a spinning Hurricane development off Cuba....and THEN they proceed to show the vastness of the storm by giving a visual of the conical path...what lies in it's path.<br /><br />Wide conical formation from Tic Vol oscillator...another nice tool to go along with CCI.<br /><br />-MikeUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05995649848829149221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-47228032527436373122009-07-04T10:00:01.827-07:002009-07-04T10:00:01.827-07:00Mike - a "stop" is an exit. A "sto...Mike - a "stop" is an exit. A "stop/reverse" is as it implies, a new trade in the other direction.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04435140994142833427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-73424533383463344092009-07-04T09:46:22.413-07:002009-07-04T09:46:22.413-07:00Michael...
what exactly do you mean by reversal s...Michael...<br /><br />what exactly do you mean by reversal systems....as opposed to stops?<br /><br />thanks,<br />-MikeUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05995649848829149221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-18080659094995492292009-07-04T08:42:51.509-07:002009-07-04T08:42:51.509-07:00Allan, I'm definitely coming around to your ph...Allan, I'm definitely coming around to your philosophy of trading trends, using reversal systems (rather than stops), and using Elliot wave for forecasting.<br /><br />I think I would have gotten there on my own, but I do appreciate your time on the blog.Michael Lomkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11792842016865423159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9226230.post-25190729311216734572009-07-04T01:18:27.217-07:002009-07-04T01:18:27.217-07:00Black day in July....haunting, despairing, sorrowf...Black day in July....haunting, despairing, sorrowful, surreal, shocking and never again one hopes....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com