Monday, June 30, 2008

Those that can, do.

There is an old adage that goes something like this:

Those who can, do; those who can't, teach
.

In the Investment Blogosphere, the adage goes:

Those who can, do, those who can't, charge subscription fees.


I have railed against Jim Cramer for undeserved notoriety as a stock picker in light of his abysmal real time track record. He charges $400 a year yet can barely match the performance of the S&P 500. Cramer is not alone, as many of you know, there are a whole lot of services out there offering to take your money in exchange for stock recommendations. I never fully understood this, as there is so much money to be made when you do it right, why would anyone who knows what they are doing want to also run a marketing and publishing business?

The truth is, one of my motivations for AllAllan has been to show that although anyone with a computer and Internet connection can write a paragraph or two, or ten, about stocks and then charge a fee to read it, not everyone can pick winning stocks. I've known for years that I have a knack for successful trading and am very pleased to have passed on some of that success here, on AllAllan, with no fees and no strings attached, just the way it should be.

A few weeks ago I allowed Google to start posting ads on my site, thinking it might be a worthwhile enterprise for both my readers and myself. I don't know if those advertisers offer any value or not, but I that know I do. I also know that my share of the click-ad revenue is meager, at best, a couple of dollars a day.

Some of you have sent me tokens of appreciation over the years, books, gift baskets, wine and I truly appreciate the sentiment as well as the tangible items you have sent my way. But lately I have been thinking that if we are all going to get rich off of my intellectual property, or "stock picks" if you will, then sending me a present may not be the best way to keep this arrangement interesting for either any of you, or me.

A couple of Comments last night got me to thinking about what would work for everyone. First, this site must remain free, with no strings attached, as long as I am in charge. And I am.

Second, a friend of mine pointed out that as long as my time and effort in posting these trading ideas goes unrewarded, I am risking getting bored, or even resentful that other sites not nearly as profitable for readers as this site, are raking in exorbitant monthly fees and that will result in my ultimately posting less at best, or shutting down completely at worst.

So this is my compromise in order to keep the trading opportunities and stock profits coming, while keeping the ideas robust, timely and at the same time getting some material reward for my efforts:

I am going to add a donation icon to this site. Anyone can click the icon and make a donation that will find it's way to me through Paypal. Hopefully this will work for everyone, for those of you who just want to read and play for free, as well as those of you who wish to send me donations to help defray the time and effort that goes into my research and posting.

This works for all of us, you can donate as you deem appropriate, or not at all and I can try to live up to the level of your collective generosity with the very best ideas and strategies that I use every day in my own trading.

We all win.

Just the way it should be.

A

Saturday, June 28, 2008

GSI


"Confirmatory Analysis" is a stock selection methodology that combines strong technicals with stellar fundamentals. In my case, technicals always come first and will often suffice in and of itself for a reason to buy or sell a stock. When fundamentals kick in, the trade becomes compelling. Since there are usually more technical-based trades then capital to trade them all, requiring the kicker of fundamental confirmation serves as a filter to reduce the array of attractive set-ups to a manageable level.


I bought GSI on Friday near the close, even though the general market looks sick and we are headed into a holiday week. But the trade became compelling around mid-session when I pulled up the GSI chart and realized that it was about to break out of a six month pattern:

The annotations on this chart give a clue as to why I like GSI here;

  1. It is breaking out of a nine month long horizontal trend channel (lower channel line not shown).
  2. The break out is accompanied by a huge volume bar;
  3. The MACD oscillator is showing building upward momentum.


Now the truth is that I bought GSI just on the break out. I didn't have time to check out the fundamentals on the stock at the time, but, GSI has been a stock I have been day trading for months, because when it runs it really runs and it has been easy to scalp 5% under the right trading conditions.


The fundamentals that I usually look for in a stock will vary with each individual security and sector. I've highlighted a few in prior blogs that have shown to be good indications of future price movement. I especially like Revenue Growth and Earnings Growth and those are easily available on Yahoo Finance.

But by now you should know that I absolutely love a good story stock. A good story will get under the skin of a trader/investor and completely take over those areas of our brains that control rationality and allowing total domination by and for the area of our brains that control greed and yes, dreams. It may sound risky, but, remember the late 1990's when this chemical or biological process became epidemic, causing fortunes to be made (and then lost, but that story is for another blog).

GSI is a Chinese stock and that is itself a story. It is also a Louis Navellier stock and in order to be a Navellier stock it by definition must have stellar fundamentals as well as a compelling story (as only Louis can tell it) behind it. Now we've made good money on the last two Navellier stocks, GTE + 12% in two weeks and FSYS +4% in one week.

Here is Louis' "Portfolio Grader" for these three stocks:


As you can see, according to the way Louis Navellier looks at fundamentals, GSI (as well as GTE and FSYS) is very highly rated. But wait, there is more.

Nobody writes a story better then the copywriters who work at Navellier's publisher. So I will end this rather lengthy blog with their hook, the story behind GSI and why if you don't own it yet, not to worry, you haven't missed out because as you will read, the best is yet to come.

A

---------------------------------------------------------------

Did You Miss It?
- UP 80% in 4 weeks
- Then UP ANOTHER 32% in 4 DAYS
- Now UP 53% in 7 DAYS!
Can You Get in Now?
--------------------------------
EMERGING GROWTH'S NEW APPLE!
********************************
Big winners are our meat and drink to us here at Emerging Growth.
Trophy stocks we call them, miracle stocks, stocks that defy the
Gravitational pull of the market and blast off for the
moon...leaving most OTHER investors gazing skyward wondering...
HOW DID I MISS THAT?


I'm Louis Navellier and I'm writing to you today to tell you: you
haven't missed it yet, but if you're going to buy this monster
winner, buy it in the next 72 hours.

On January 2, Emerging Growth subscribers, acting upon my
instructions, sent privately via email, loaded up the best
example of this new type of China stock.


* In the previous 4 quarters, sales growth rose 555.8%
* Earnings rose 1,830% in the same period
* Operating margins nearly tripled.


We bought at $7.90.

Today, with the stock near $14, we are closing in our FIRST
double.
The first, I believe, of several.
============
What It Does
============
China produces one-third of the world's steel, but domestic
demand is even greater. That's why steel prices are going higher
and higher. Indeed, even though raw material prices (coal,
transportation) are up now, steel prices are up even more,
allowing our company to expand its margins.

This producer has three other big advantages:

- because it's not owned by Beijing like the other China steel
behemoths, it can price nimbly and change its mix of output in
real time.
- it owns ore mines, so it controls raw material costs. The ore
mines Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are gouging China's state-owned
steel producers, but this company is largely immune.
- it is gobbling up other small steel producers who are struggling
with increased costs, thereby making itself more efficient every
quarter.
- it serves a niche: hot-rolled sheet steel used in agricultural
equipment, shipping containers and big construction projects like
Olympics stadiums. It is closely involved in the rebuilding of
Sechuan after the recent earthquake. In every niche, it controls
up to 70% of the market share.
========
Why Now?
========
If my information is correct, we have 72 hours to act. Here is
why:

One of the world's richest men wants to buy our little
independent China steel company.
In the last year, Lakshmi Mittal has built steel mills in Saudi
Arabia and Poland, created Mexico's largest steel conglomerate,
wrung mining concessions out of Senegal and bought a distribution
network in Germany. Turkey, Mozambique, Italy and Estonia have
also been sucked into the Arcelor Mittal mill.
Just in the last year.
But the jewel in Mittal's global crown is China. And his prime
target is a small, well-run, independent steel mill-of which ours
is the best.
The trigger for an offer comes as the second quarter ends. That's
when market share is declared and speculation about consolidation
will run wild.
Many will buy on the rumor (as the saying goes) forcing our stock
up 20%, 30% or more during the July 4 weekend.

Get in BEFORE this happens.


Friday, June 27, 2008

DBA - Double Top or Break-Out?


Floods, famine, inflation, extreme weather and market moving crop reports, DBA is an ETF investing in corn, wheat, soybean and sugar futures.  The problem with buying it here the is the danger of a double top just above current levels. But, slicing up through that resistance line would be a heads-up to buy the January 2009 65 calls, currently at 30 cents.  Can this stock move 50% in six months?  Last June in ran from 25 to 38, or about 50%, in six months and that was before the inflation and floods that are looming this summer. What happens to those calls if it does run like that again? $1.00 to $2.00 seems likely along the way up.  Of course the options can be eschewed in favor of the stock, but, what fun is that?

A


Two Trading Ideas


Thursday, June 26, 2008

Would you buy this stock?




 I've intentionally left off the symbol and the price axis so the chart can be evaluated on it's very own merits.
 
I see an excellent long candidate that is just now breaking out for the fourth or fifth time in the past few months.  Look at how it is breaking out of the horizontal channel of the past two weeks.

Below are a series of charts, same underlying, different perspectives, all seeming to confirm the breakout Buy on the chart above. 

I've left the symbols, descriptions and prices on these next charts.

Is it still a Buy?




































Of course it is.

A









Cramer

There is a video circulating about more shenanigans from Jim Cramer.  I've waited a few days to post it so it didn't look so much like I was piling on the guy.  David Gordon has a short and to-the-point introduction to the piece that clearly summarizes why the content of this video is important:

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

TSO - Bottom Fishing?



I bought some TSO this morning @ $21.62. This is not my typical breakout-buy, or even a bounce-off-double-bottom-buy. But the stock is down from over $65 and trades at single digit PE's. It is just now generating some white candles, breaking only the shortest term down trend lines on the daily charts.

In about an hour, I am up 50 cents, about 2.5% and have a mental stop at break-even. With resistance at 24 and again at 28, the risk:reward is decent and in a perfect world, we have a major bottom in the making.




A

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

NNVC Support


38% Fibonacci retracement = 1.25
8 Week EMA = 1.21 and rising every day
50% Fibonacci retracement = 1.08 (ouch)
Fantasy/Reality Ultimate Valuation = 200.00

Updates

FSYS: Was downgraded today by Brightpoint Capital, stock is down about 10%. The same analyst downgraded ENER on May 9, 2008 causing ENER to drop 5% in one day, but then climb close to 100% in a little over one month.

HYGS: up again, now close to a 50% gain in three days.

ABAT: Up 5% today on a new $5M contract with a Chinese company for batteries for a new kind of handheld searchlight:
The PLI cells being sold to QHSTD will be utilized to power a new generation of high-power and long life handheld searchlights. These searchlights combine the latest in lighting and battery technologies. This collaboration will result in a brighter and lighter searchlight. These searchlights have a range of lighting up to 1,000 meters, or approximately 3,300 feet, and over 10 hours of continuous discharging time.
A

Monday, June 23, 2008

HYGS - update

HYGS is up about 40% since Thursday's post. Take it or ride it? I'm holding, because of this chart, but would not argue with anyone who wants to take the nice pop while it is there.



Sunday, June 22, 2008

"$32 Fuel Conversion Stock to $64 by July 7″

Last week we looked at GTE, a stock that Louis Navellier pumped with a promise it would double in 14 days. GTE was up as much as 20% from Monday's open, before collapsing at the end of last week, closing just about 1% higher for the week.

Louis is at it again, with this week's teaser e-mail:

“$32 Fuel Conversion Stock to $64 by July 7″


Fellow Investor,

There’s a fuel conversion revolution at hand, and there’s simply no stopping it.

The biggest profit taker of all will be a little known fuel conversion company that converts American gas guzzlers into clean burning compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles—in the time it takes to service your car.

Please add it to your holdings today.

Our research indicates that when the company’s 2ND quarter earnings are released, the company’s past 511% earnings growth will not only go supersonic but also make the company’s past 90-day 200% gains look like a drop in the bucket.

Your Timing Is Perfect

Louis Navellier here and a tidal wave of money is about to pour into this little known fuel conversion company, and in doing so hand you the fastest profits of your investing life.

The reasons are obvious:

1. Rising oil prices that have driven unleaded gas prices to more than $4-a-gallon are now forcing consumers to find new ways to cut fuel costs.

2. State and government tax credits will cover nearly the entire cost of converting gasoline fueled vehicles to compressed natural gas so there’s (a) virtually no out-of-pocket cost on the consumers end and (b) the fuel savings are virtually instantaneous.

3. As a result, you can fill up your new natural gas powered for as little as 63 cent-a-gallon with next to no payback time on the conversion. So instead of paying a wallet-busting $80 a tank of gas you’re looking at just $12.50 for 20 gallons of natural gas.

This is just the beginning of what makes this fuel system company such a great play.

4. Honda is already marketing the Civic GX NGV that runs on clean, domestically produced natural gas….

…as Volkswagen is set to exhibit a prototype of it’s Caddy EcoFuel in September that can operate on both compressed natural gas and bio methane.

5. The CNG conversion craze has already started around the world, with 4,500 gas to CNG versions being done every month in India as we speak—not to mention, Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

6. What’s more, there’s already a natural gas fueling network in place around United States, so you could drive from San Francisco to New York without any problem finding a place to fill up.

7. In addition, because natural gas is not only a cleaner burning fuel (which is why the government offers tax credits in the first place) your engine burns cleaner and runs longer as well.

When you consider that…

* Most alternative fuels sources are still on the drawing boards,

* The natural gas exploration, production, refining, and distribution infrastructure is already in place and

* The government’s tax credit for converting your vehicle makes the cost virtually free. You can see why you’re looking at a ground floor opportunity in the making.

Buy this one stock today and I guarantee you’ll thank me a thousand times on July 7th —or you won’t pay a dime.
The company he is talking about is Fuel Systems Solutions; FSYS.


An Alternative to America’s Gasoline Crisis

Excerpt from article from Seeking Alpha on CNG conversions:

"Of 181 million US registered cars, trucks, and buses, only 0.017% or 30,000 vehicles are fueled with CNG. To convert an existing gasoline fuelled vehicle to CNG, it takes only a few hours. The cost of a conversion kit and tank is about $3,500. The state of Utah offers a tax credit of $3,000 per new or used vehicle converted to CNG. Questar (STR) not only supplies CNG but it is provides storage and dispensing facilities at existing service centres in Utah and Wyoming. Every state in the US provides an internet listing of CNG dispensing locations. Environmentally, when compared to gasoline vehicles, CNG vehicles reduce:

*Carbon monoxide [CO] by about 70 percent
*Non-methane organic gas [NMOG] by about 87 percent
*Nitrogen oxides (NOx) by about 87 percent
*Carbon dioxide (CO2) by about 20 percent

All Federal, provincial and state government agencies allow CNG powered vehicles."


A

Thursday, June 19, 2008

HYGS

Another Alternative Energy stock showing a breakout with good risk:reward parameters.


WEEKLY
DAILYA

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

NNVC Valuation - continued

I last touched upon the valuation of NNVC on April 15, 2008. In my blog of that date, duly titled "NNVC Valuation," I made the case,
"NNVC is a more compelling buy today at $0.65 then it was when I first mentioned it here at $0.10, before it ran to $3.75. Then, it was pure speculation. Now, it has taken its first steps as a genuine biotechnology company."
What about today, 60 days later, with the price up at $1.60?

Here is a post by the same advocate of these shares that I used in my April blog and who is probably more knowledgeable about Nanoviricides then anyone outside of the company's CEO and Chairman of the Board.

"In the next 5 years I'm expecting a 100 to 500 bagger from current prices. Simple matter of doing the math on approval and stockpiling of drugs for Influenza, HIV, EKC and HEP B and C.

Influenza = $3 billion
HIV = $3 billion
EKS = $3 bilion
HEP B & C = $3 billion

"15% royalty for NNVC = $1.8 billion with a multiplier of 25 times earnings leaves a market cap of $45 billion or $300 a share. Now throw in one drug approval every 6 months and what do you get?"

Link

Takeaway: In the past sixty days the trickle of news out of NNVC has caused someone who knows more about the company then either you or I to raise his valuation of the company by 50%, about another $100 per share.

A

ABAT


This is an eight month breakout on the weekly chart, on four times normal volume, in the alternative energy sector. Look how the MACD is crossing over and turning up from oversold.


Below, the fundamentals showing strong growth in revenues and earnings.

Technicals and Fundamentals = Confirmatory Analysis

A

Monday, June 16, 2008

NNVC - another breakout imminent

NNVC: HIV lead drug "markedly superior results"

NanoViricides Anti-HIV Lead Drug Candidate Demonstrated Substantial Improvement in Survival Time in Animal Model
Monday June 16, 7:00 am ET


Results Better Than Combination Therapy in Double-Blind Animal Study


WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), (the Company) said that its lead anti-HIV drug candidate demonstrated markedly superior survival results in the test animals when compared to those animals given the anti-HIV combo cocktail in a double-blind animal study. The three-drug combo cocktail used for comparison is one of the most frequently used triple combination therapies in humans.

Full text here.


A


Sunday, June 15, 2008

$6 Canadian Oil Stock to Hit $12 By Next Friday

This past Friday afternoon, as I was just closing down all my trading programs for the week, an email came in from Louis Navellier, editor of the $5,000/year newsletter, “Global Growth.”

What immediately caught my attention was in the Subject line:

“$6 Canadian Oil Stock to Hit $12 By Next Friday.”

Ok, Louis, what have you got up your sleeve?

I read on. The email-pump-piece took its sweet time getting to the point, detouring first to explain and embellish the opportunity:

All thanks to its mammoth Colombian, Argentinean, and Peruvian reserves.

“Buy this one today and I guarantee you’ll thank me a thousand times by June 20th—or you won’t pay a dime.”


Global Growth is not a cheap service. However, in this promotional piece, the cost of a subscription is discounted to $699 for a 90-day trial.

A Double in the Next 14 Days — Guaranteed

The promotional offer is simply that if you take a trial subscription to Global Growth for $699 then Louis will give you the name of this stock and if the stock doesn’t double in the next 14 days, you get your money back. (That sounds better then it really is, since with all of Louis’ newsletters, satisfaction is guaranteed for at least a pro rata refund, if not the entire subscription cost.)

As for this unnamed company being touted, here are the underlying facts (and hints) given in the email in support of the recommendation:

(1) “Over the past decade, this company has quietly acquired the drilling rights to more than 6 million acres in Argentina, Peru, and Colombia—countries whose combined oil reserves are equal to half of Venezuela’s reserves.

(2) “In addition (and unlike our OPEC suppliers), Argentina, Peru, and Colombia all have stable democratic governments that are friendly with the United States—a huge plus in the world today.

(3) “What’s more, this company’s quarterly revenue is exploding twice as fast as the big oil companies’—at an amazing 373% year over year! So it’s no surprise the stock is up a shocking 478% over the past 12 months.

(4) “PLUS, with analysts now estimating the company’s sales growth to exceed 710% for the current quarter, you could easily expect a double in the next 14 days as the pension funds and oil and energy funds realign their holdings to improve their second-quarter performance.”


The bad news is that this stock is no longer a $6 stock. The good news is that it’s still a $7 stock.

So if this stock is going to double by June 20th, there is still about 70% to make if the stock’s price is to hit the “guaranteed” price level.

Ready for the pick?

One week before I got this promotional pump piece from Louis, he posted a glowing recommendation for this same stock in the public section of the Navellier Growth web site as the “Stock-Of-The-Week,” for June 9, 2008:

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE). Any Investing 101 class will teach you that the best stocks are the ones with a bright future, not just a company with stock ratings that shine in the present. You get the best of both worlds with my stock pick of the week, Gran Tierra Energy, Inc. (GTE). Gran Tierra is a Canada-based oil and gas energy company that explores, develops and produces its products in Colombia, Argentina and Peru. GTE's strategy focuses on enhancing its production properties to provide a foundation for future growth. And with soaring crude oil prices, the potential for profitable investment is sky high!”



Full text of Louis Navellier Recommendation


So there you have it, straight from Louis’ own website, the “$6 Canadian Oil Stock to Hit $12 By Next Friday.”

Let’s all meet back here, Friday.

A

Thursday, June 12, 2008

LEH chart analysis

LEH is in the news today, so I brought up a chart to see how and why I missed this one. Well, I missed it only because I wasn't looking. Note how the 50 level on the weekly chart served as support throughout the last six months of 2007 before being breached in early 2008. At that point, the 50 level became resistance. LEH hit 50 and reversed down hard two times before collapsing. Finally, note how the entire decline was confirmed by the MACD.

A

Monday, June 09, 2008

Jim Dines Update

A new Dines Letter was published over the weekend, covering all the usual suspects......with all the usual predictions and supporting observations.


Gold: "Our long-term target for gold has been between $3,000 and $5,000 an ounce.....the long term rising price of gold is following what we call "Trajectory Analysis" tending to confirm our view."


Commodities: "The fact that the commodity boom is widely called a 'bubble' is a factor in deciding that it is not one yet. Dinesism #20 (DIBUBBLE) states that: 'Bubbles are invisible to those inside the bubbles.'"

Oil: "Short-term setbacks aside, for many years we have been looking for the price of oil to rise 'to infinity' when the oil, at last, inevitably, someday, runs out. Forever."

Uranium: "Many uranium-mining companies are selling at amazingly low levels, acting as if there will never be another uranium power plant built, but the world has no other serious choice for the next few centuries, and it is not helpful to keep delusioning about 'renewables'."

Politics: "If God had wanted us to vote, he would have given us candidates - Jay Leno"

Stocks: "Bullish, unless March lows are taken out."

A

NNVC - photos of a cure

NanoViricides Inc. Posts Photos Showing Rapid Response of Animals to Treatment with EKC Eye Drug Candidate

Click here for Press Release

Click here for Photos


A

Sunday, June 08, 2008

failure to launch

Been looking all weekend for new Long ideas and here it is Sunday night and all I have is chart after chart of breakdowns. Since I think shorting is beyond the risk level of most of us, I am not going to recommend any new Shorts, nor any new Longs, with one exception: All together now, "NNVC."

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Tonight

WINGS WIN!
WINGS WIN!
WINGS WIN!
WINGS WIN!